BTX Blog

SUMMARY

Crude above $100/barrel is flowing through to jet fuel, bunker and diesel costs, which is why air, ocean and truck rates are well above last year even where underlying demand is only moderately stronger. Fuel-related surcharges are likely to remain a meaningful part of total freight cost while energy markets stay elevated.

Air Freight: Global airfreight rates are running about 21% above last year on the Baltic Air Freight Index heading into peak season, and Xeneta’s global spot average reached $3.10/kg in September (+27% YoY). Demand grew 6% against just 2% capacity growth, pushing load factors higher.

Ocean Freight: Drewry’s World Container Index slipped 1% to $4,434 per 40ft as China’s Golden Week began. Transpacific rates remain near highs, while Asia–Europe has now declined for 12 straight weeks as Suez Canal transits climb.

Trucking: Quarter-end freight lifted DAT spot rates to $3.13/mile for dry van, $3.69 for reefer and $3.71 for flatbed. Linehaul rates are 28–34% above a year ago, with flatbed showing the tightest capacity.

Trade Compliance: CBP opens Phase 3 of its IEEPA refund process (CAPE) today, October 6, for CIT plaintiffs; about $122 billion has been certified for repayment so far. The Section 301 tariff structure (10%/12.5%) that replaced Section 122 remains the baseline.

Commodities & Economy: Brent is holding above $102/barrel and WTI near $91, roughly 60% and 53% above early-January levels. U.S. hiring slowed sharply (+29,000 jobs), while ISM Manufacturing held firm at 54.5.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose 0.9% week-over-week in its most recently published reading (week ending September 21) and stands 20.9% higher than a year ago. The absolute BAI00 index value was data unavailable at time of publishing; no newer weekly BAI release was found in the past seven days, likely reflecting the Golden Week lull. Separately, Xeneta reports the global air cargo spot rate averaged $3.10/kg in September, up 2% month-on-month and 27% year-on-year.

Corridor performance is increasingly lane-specific. Shanghai outbound (BAI80) rose 0.6% WoW (+19.7% YoY) and Hong Kong (BAI30) edged up 0.3% (+19.6% YoY). Frankfurt (BAI20) bucked the trend, falling 3.4% WoW though still 21.1% above last year, while London Heathrow (BAI40) jumped 10.0% WoW (+11.4% YoY). Chicago outbound (BAI50) remains the standout year-on-year at +45.7%. Xeneta shows Northeast Asia–North America at $6.03/kg and Northeast Asia–Europe at $4.74/kg, both up 5% month-on-month.

IATA’s latest data (August) shows global demand up 4.4% YoY while capacity contracted 0.1%, lifting the cargo load factor to 46.0%, up 2.0 points from a year ago. Asia–North America was the fastest-growing trade lane (+13.2%), while Gulf-linked corridors remain disrupted. Xeneta’s September dynamic load factor climbed to 62%. Rising load factors mean less spare space on freighters and in bellyholds.

Fuel remains the dominant cost factor: jet fuel is roughly double year-ago levels (+79% YoY per IATA in August; +116% per the BAI mid-September). China–Europe e-commerce volumes are down about 40% YoY following the EU’s new €3 per-item duty, while China–US e-commerce is up 17%. Xeneta expects a relatively muted fourth quarter, though any renewed ocean disruption could shift additional volume to air.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry’s World Container Index (October 1) slipped 1% to $4,434 per 40ft container as China’s Golden Week holiday got underway. That is still roughly 2.6 times the level of a year ago, when the composite stood near $1,669 per 40ft. The composite masks a sharp split between the transpacific and Asia–Europe trades.

Carriers continue to manage capacity with blank sailings. On the transpacific, 10 blank sailings were announced for the coming week versus 13 the week prior; on Asia–Europe, 5 versus 6. Golden Week factory closures across China are temporarily reducing cargo volumes. Suez Canal transits in week 39 were 68% higher than the same week a year earlier, adding effective capacity to Asia–Europe services as more ships return to the shorter route.

Transpacific: Shanghai–New York rose 1% to $10,428 per 40ft and Shanghai–Los Angeles held flat at $7,835. Xeneta notes Far East–U.S. East Coast spot rates have climbed 30.7% since July 1 and West Coast rates 18.4%, but signals the rising trend may begin to level off in the first half of October. Asia–Europe: Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to $3,399 and Shanghai–Genoa fell 3% to $3,702, the 12th consecutive weekly decline.

Carrier news: lines are expected to attempt post-holiday rate increases, but Drewry notes the outcome on Asia–Europe is uncertain given the added capacity from Suez routings. Elevated bunker costs tied to higher crude prices continue to feed into fuel-related surcharges across trade lanes.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

A quarter-end freight push lifted DAT national average spot rates for the week of September 27–October 3. Dry van rose 11 cents to $3.13/mile, reefer gained 7 cents to $3.69/mile and flatbed climbed 11 cents to $3.71/mile. Linehaul rates (excluding fuel) are now 28–34% above year-ago levels. Reefer rates hit a record $3.60/mile in September and projects 2026 spot rates up roughly 28–31% year-over-year across equipment types.

Load-to-truck ratios point to tight capacity: van load posts rose 15% while truck posts fell 7%, pushing the van ratio to 13.7; reefer reached 21.7 and flatbed 44.1. Route guide tender failures have climbed back above 6% after easing from a summer peak of 7.5%, well above prior-year levels, with the Pacific Northwest the tightest reefer region and Northeast flatbed tighter than normal.

Fuel is doing much of the work: national diesel averaged $6.38/gallon in the latest reading (down from $6.53 the prior week) and exceeds $8/gallon in parts of the West Coast. Near term, peak retail and holiday freight, combined with reduced carrier capacity, point to continued firmness in spot rates through the fourth quarter.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

IEEPA refunds – CAPE Phase 3 opens today. CBP launches Phase 3 of its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) refund process on October 6, 2026. Phase 3 is limited to importers that are plaintiffs in pending Court of International Trade refund cases, for entries that are finally liquidated and covered by a court reliquidation order. Importers whose importer-of-record numbers were submitted by July 30 can file on launch day; later submissions are processed on a rolling biweekly basis. CBP has received more than 286,000 CAPE declarations and certified roughly $122 billion (including interest) for payment, about 73% of the $166 billion in IEEPA duties collected. Approximately $1.3 billion across 20,184 refunds is on hold because importers have not provided ACH banking details. Refunds typically arrive 60–90 days after acceptance.

Section 301 remains the baseline tariff. Since the Section 122 temporary duty expired July 24, the Section 301 structure has applied: 10% for roughly 30 economies with forced-labor import protections and 12.5% for the remainder. EU goods remain under the 15% all-inclusive ceiling, USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico remain duty-free, and Section 232 goods (steel, aluminum, copper, autos) are unaffected. Oral arguments in the court challenge to these Section 301 tariffs began September 30.

Canada and China. The U.S. revised the scope of Canadian products subject to existing 50% tariffs effective September 15 (adding items such as paper, leather, golf carts and motorboats), and import prohibitions on certain Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor-vehicle-related products took effect September 29. Following the September 28 U.S.–China leaders’ meeting, possible tariff reductions on certain Chinese goods were discussed, but rates, scope and timing have not been finalized. No new Section 232 actions were announced this week.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Oil. As of October 5, Brent crude was trading around $102.30/barrel and WTI around $90.62/barrel. That puts Brent roughly 61% above its first-week-of-January level ($63.34) and WTI roughly 53% higher ($59.12). Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of seven days in the final week of September, and G7 nations plan to release roughly 100 million barrels of crude and diesel reserves, both of which are capping further gains. Elevated shipping and insurance costs continue to support prices.

Geopolitical disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key chokepoint following this year’s Middle East conflict; flows have recovered since the strait reopened in late June, but uncertainty around Gulf routings and insurance costs persists. Gulf-linked air corridors remain disrupted, and Middle East air rates are still 80–91% above late-February baselines on some lanes. Suez Canal transits are increasing, reshaping Asia–Europe ocean capacity.

U.S. economic pulse. The September jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 versus a 90,000 forecast, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment edged up to 4.2%. In contrast, the ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5% (ninth straight month of expansion), with new orders rising to 55.3%. The prices index surged to 77.9%, and supplier deliveries slowed for a 10th consecutive month, reflecting cost and lead-time pressure in factory supply chains.

US Economic Pulse — Most Recent Readings

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Fuel is again the common thread across every mode this week. Crude above $100/barrel is flowing through to jet fuel, bunker and diesel costs, which is why air, ocean and truck rates are well above last year even where underlying demand is only moderately stronger. Fuel-related surcharges are likely to remain a meaningful part of total freight cost while energy markets stay elevated.

Conditions are diverging by trade lane. Shippers moving Asia–U.S. freight should be aware that transpacific ocean rates remain near their highs and air capacity is tightening into peak season, while Asia–Europe ocean conditions are easing as Suez routings add capacity. A single headline index no longer tells the full story for any given lane.

Domestically, trucking capacity is tightening. Rising tender rejections, high load-to-truck ratios and the approach of holiday freight point to a firmer market through the fourth quarter, with flatbed and Pacific Northwest reefer the tightest segments. Allowing additional lead time for domestic pickups can help reduce the risk of delays.

On the compliance side, today’s CAPE Phase 3 launch is an important milestone for importers involved in IEEPA refund litigation, and the $1.3 billion in refunds held for missing banking details is a reminder to confirm that importer records with CBP are current. The softening labor market alongside strong manufacturing activity suggests an uneven economy heading into year-end.


The BTX team monitors these markets daily. If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.