BTX Blog

SUMMARY

Across modes, fuel is the common thread. Crude above $100 per barrel and record diesel are lifting surcharges and operating costs in air, ocean and trucking, and shippers should be aware that these pressures may persist while Hormuz and Red Sea risks remain unresolved.

Capacity conditions differ by mode. Air cargo demand is growing faster than capacity, ocean carriers are actively managing supply through blank sailings ahead of Golden Week, and trucking capacity has loosened slightly week over week even as rates stay well above last year. Transit planning around holiday-related congestion and storm disruption in Asia is worthwhile.

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) is up 20.2% year over year and 0.2% week over week, with jet fuel costs the main pressure. IATA reports July demand up 3.9% against 1.7% capacity growth.

Ocean Freight: Drewry’s World Container Index held at $4,500 per 40ft container (+1% week over week). Transpacific lanes are firming while Asia–Europe softens.

Trucking: DAT dry van spot rates averaged $2.20 per mile (−0.6% week over week) and are up 34.2% year over year. The van load-to-truck ratio eased to 10.95.

Trade Compliance: CBP’s IEEPA refund process enters Phase 3 on October 6, with roughly $134.7 billion in potential refunds identified. A Canada entry ban on select goods takes effect September 29.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude was near $103.77 per barrel and WTI near $100.88 on September 18 amid Saudi–Houthi strikes. August payrolls rose 162,000 and ISM Manufacturing read 54.6.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) index value was not available at time of publishing; the index rose 0.2% week over week and is up 20.2% year over year, according to TAC Index data reported by Air Cargo Week on September 15. Reporting notes that the effect of recent crude and jet fuel increases had yet to be fully reflected in rates, which points to continued upward pressure heading into the traditional peak season.

Corridor performance was mixed. Frankfurt (BAI20) rose 3.2% week over week and 30.2% year over year, while London Heathrow (BAI40) fell 9.1% week over week and 1.9% year over year. Chicago (BAI50) gained 15.1% week over week and 59.2% year over year. Hong Kong (BAI30) and Shanghai (BAI80) figures: data unavailable at time of publishing. Freightos data for September 8 showed China–North America air rates up 5% to $6.30 per kg and China–North Europe up 6% to $4.88 per kg.

IATA’s July report showed air cargo demand (CTKs) up 3.9% year over year against capacity growth of 1.7%, lifting the global load factor 1.0 percentage point to 46.0%. Demand outpacing capacity signals tighter available space. Asia–North America traffic grew 9.2%, while Europe–Middle East (−16.1%) and Middle East–Asia (−14.1%) lanes were disrupted by regional conflict. IATA also noted jet fuel was 56.9% above the prior year, and dedicated freighters gained market share as belly capacity declined.

Outlook: with fuel costs elevated, the Middle East conflict constraining some routings, and peak-season shipments approaching, market conditions look set to remain firm in the near term.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) composite was $4,500 per 40ft container on September 17, up 1% from the prior week and effectively flat after a stable reading on September 10 ($4,476). Year-over-year change: data unavailable at time of publishing. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 5% to $7,712 and Shanghai–New York rose 7% to $10,394, while Shanghai–Genoa fell 5% to $4,016 and Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 9% to $3,626.

Carriers continue to manage capacity. Drewry’s outlook cites nine transpacific and four Asia–Europe blank sailings announced for the coming week, and J.M. Rodgers reported that roughly 20% of capacity has been pulled through blank sailings. Typhoon-related congestion at Far East hubs has affected schedules; Drewry noted Asian port congestion improving from 94 to 64 hours in its September 10 update, and Ningbo closed for 78 hours ahead of September 3.

Trade lane updates: transpacific rates are expected to edge higher on pre-Golden Week demand (China’s holiday runs October 1–7) and carrier capacity controls, though peak season is in its final weeks. Asia–Europe demand remains weak, and Freightos reports Mediterranean rates have fallen roughly even with North Europe as more services transit the Red Sea. Suez Canal service restoration is selective, and potential German port labor action adds uncertainty. Carriers implemented general rate increases on September 1 and another was anticipated for September 15, and Hormuz tensions have lifted fuel costs by about 60% since the conflict began, per Freightos.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT’s week ending September 11 showed dry van spot rates at $2.20 per mile (linehaul, excluding fuel), down 0.6% week over week but up 34.2% year over year. Reefer spot averaged $2.74 per mile, up 1.9%, and flatbed averaged $2.66 per mile, down 0.1%. For the month of August, DAT reported the steepest August spot van pullback on record, with van at $2.19 (down 20 cents), reefer at $2.61 and flatbed at $2.70.

The dry van load-to-truck ratio eased to 10.95 from 11.47 the prior week, a sign that capacity is somewhat less tight. Load postings fell 18% for the seasonal Labor Day week but remain 23% above a year ago. DAT describes the market as steady but choppy, with industrial volume offset by uncertainty in consumer-goods replenishment.

Fuel remains a key driver. DAT’s August fuel surcharge averaged 70 cents per mile for van (up 8 cents), 77 cents for reefer (up 10 cents) and 84 cents for flatbed (up 10 cents), and diesel prices are at record highs. Near term, elevated fuel costs and a still-tight year-over-year capacity picture are offset by cooler month-end demand.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

IEEPA refunds: CBP will deploy Phase 3 of its IEEPA tariff refund process (CAPE) on October 6, 2026, covering finally liquidated entries subject to court-ordered reliquidation. As of September 11, 286,044 declarations had been submitted, with about $134.7 billion in potential refunds identified and roughly $122 billion transmitted to Treasury for disbursement. Importers of record are expected to ensure accurate importer information and properly formatted CSV submissions.

Canada: 50% Section 338 duties on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect August 22. Canada responded September 8 with 15–50% counter-tariffs on C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, and an entry ban on specified goods (including packaged alcoholic beverages, whey, molasses and motorcycles over 800cc) takes effect September 29. Section 232: duties on unmanned aircraft systems took effect September 3, with additional components following February 9, 2027. The Court of International Trade upheld the de minimis rescission on August 13, and Executive Order 14411 directs tighter importer-of-record and bonding requirements as CBP expands transshipment enforcement.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

•    Oil: Brent was near $103.77 per barrel and WTI near $100.88 on September 18 (third straight daily decline), with Brent off a September high of $109.96. Year-to-date change: data unavailable at time of publishing.

•    Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis exchanged strikes, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is damaged, and Strait of Hormuz traffic remains well below pre-war levels. Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb risks persist, and refined product prices, including diesel, are at or near records.

•    U.S. economy: August payrolls rose 162,000 versus expectations near 53,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and ISM Manufacturing registered 54.6, its eighth straight month of expansion, with the prices index at 71.1.

US Economic Pulse — Most Recent Readings

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Across modes, fuel is the common thread. Crude above $100 per barrel and record diesel are lifting surcharges and operating costs in air, ocean and trucking, and shippers should be aware that these pressures may persist while Hormuz and Red Sea risks remain unresolved.

Capacity conditions differ by mode. Air cargo demand is growing faster than capacity, ocean carriers are actively managing supply through blank sailings ahead of Golden Week, and trucking capacity has loosened slightly week over week even as rates stay well above last year. Transit planning around holiday-related congestion and storm disruption in Asia is worthwhile.

The U.S. economic backdrop is supportive of freight demand: manufacturing remains in expansion, and hiring surprised to the upside in August. On the regulatory side, the IEEPA refund timeline, Canadian retaliation measures and expanding CBP enforcement mean documentation accuracy and origin data deserve close attention.


The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.