Industry News

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell 3.1% week-on-week in the week ending July 20, 2026, a third consecutive weekly decline led by softer outbound pricing from Asia and Europe. Even so, the index remains well above year-ago levels, and IATA's most recent monthly data showed global cargo demand growth continuing to outpace capacity growth.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index fell 4% to $4,374 per 40ft container for the week of July 23, 2026, as Asia-Europe and Transpacific rates eased from their recent peak. Carriers have scheduled 39 blank sailings across major East-West trades over the next five weeks, and several major lines have introduced new Peak Season Surcharges.

Trucking: DAT's June 2026 data showed dry van spot rates at $3.00 per mile and flatbed rates at a record $3.69 per mile, with van spot rates topping contract rates for the first time since February 2022. The national van load-to-truck ratio eased to 10.7 for the week of July 12-18 as more capacity entered the market, even as diesel prices climbed alongside the broader crude oil rally.

Trade Compliance: The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff and simplified postal de minimis treatment both expired July 24, 2026, shifting low-value parcels to full standard customs duties and entry. New Section 232 tariffs of 100% on patented pharmaceuticals take effect July 31 for major manufacturers, while CBP continues processing IEEPA-related refunds, having repaid $86.3 billion to importers as of July 10.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude traded near $97 per barrel in the week of July 24, 2026, having climbed sharply amid supply-disruption concerns spanning the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. June's nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 versus a roughly 115,000 consensus estimate, while ISM Manufacturing PMI held in expansion territory at 53.3%.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), a weighted average of 17 destination-basket routes and six outbound indices, fell 3.1% week-on-week in the week ending July 20, 2026 - the third consecutive weekly decline. The prior two weeks saw drops of 2.5% (week ending July 13) and 2.7% (week ending July 6, when the index closed at 2,551.00). Despite this run of softening, the index remains well above year-ago levels, a reminder of how elevated the market has been for much of 2026 amid recurring geopolitical stress and tariff-driven demand shifts.

The most recent detailed corridor breakdown (week ending July 6) showed outbound Frankfurt (BAI20) down 2.9% week-on-week but up 25.1% year-on-year; outbound Hong Kong (BAI30) down a modest 0.7% and up 30.0% year-on-year; outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) down 11.5% week-on-week, its steepest decline, though up just 1.8% year-on-year; and outbound Shanghai (BAI80) down 6.0% week-on-week and up 27.7% year-on-year. Updated corridor-level figures for the most recent week were not available at time of publishing, though industry reporting indicates the softening has continued to be led by weaker outbound pricing from Asia and Europe.

IATA's most recent monthly data showed global air cargo demand continuing to outpace capacity growth, a combination that typically supports load factors. Asia-Pacific carriers posted the strongest year-on-year demand growth of any region, while North American carriers saw the slowest growth and a modest capacity contraction. One notable soft spot: demand on the Asia-North America lane was down year-on-year, even as most other major trade lanes reported growth.

Looking ahead, the market outlook points to a continuation of the seasonal summer lull, with lower jet fuel costs helping to ease pricing pressure even as year-over-year rate levels remain elevated. Regional demand patterns are diverging: Hong Kong-Europe e-commerce volumes have dropped sharply following the EU's removal of de minimis import exemptions on July 1, while Taiwan-Europe traffic has surged on AI-related equipment movements, illustrating how policy and technology shifts are reshaping specific corridors even as the broader index softens.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) fell 4% to $4,374 per 40ft container for the week of July 23, 2026, driven by declines on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trade routes. This follows a 2% decline to $4,547 the prior week (July 16) and a 2% rise to $4,639 the week before that (July 9), which had marked the index's highest level since September 2024. On the Asia-Europe lane, spot rates from Shanghai to Genoa declined 5% to $5,988 per 40ft container, while Shanghai to Rotterdam rates eased 1% to $4,824.

Fleet utilization remains a factor in the market's direction: Drewry's Cancelled Sailings Tracker shows 39 blank sailings expected across major East-West trades over the coming five weeks (week 30, July 20-26, through week 34, August 17-23). Four blank sailings are scheduled on the Asia-Europe trade next week alone, two more than the prior week - a sign of increasing available capacity as the peak-season surge begins to ease.

Trade lane conditions remain uneven. Earlier in the month, rate surges to between $7,000 and $13,000 per FEU on some transpacific routings reflected Red Sea rerouting, early peak-season demand, and shippers pulling cargo forward ahead of the July 24 tariff deadline, with inbound U.S. volumes estimated up 15% month-over-month at that point. Since then, capacity additions and easing demand have begun to bring transpacific and Asia-Europe rates down from their highs, though Drewry notes momentum could shift again given ongoing blank-sailing activity and equipment availability.

On the carrier side, MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have all announced new Peak Season Surcharges in recent weeks, layering additional costs on top of base rates even as the underlying index softens. Shippers should expect surcharge structures to remain a meaningful part of total ocean freight cost through the remainder of the peak season.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT's June 2026 data showed dry van spot rates at $3.00 per mile (up 11 cents from May), reefer spot rates at $3.39 per mile (up 4 cents), and flatbed spot rates at $3.69 per mile (up 4 cents, a new all-time high). Notably, the national average van spot rate exceeded the contract rate in June for the first time since February 2022, a signal that capacity conditions have been tightening. Mid-July spot data (week of July 12-18) showed the dry van rate holding near $2.99 per mile.

The national van load-to-truck ratio stood at 10.7 for the week of July 12-18, down from 11.8 the prior week, as van load postings fell 9% week-over-week while available truck postings rose 1% - an indication that capacity loosened modestly even as the ratio remained elevated relative to the June average near 9.4 and well above year-ago levels. Reefer and flatbed capacity have followed a similar pattern of tightening earlier in the year followed by some recent loosening.

Fuel costs are adding pressure on top of tightening capacity: the DOE's national average on-highway diesel price rose from $4.57 per gallon in early July to roughly $5.13 per gallon by the week of July 20, moving in tandem with the broader crude oil rally discussed later in this report. Near-term, capacity conditions are likely to remain mixed - loosening in some lanes as more trucks enter the market, while diesel costs continue to feed into linehaul and fuel-surcharge calculations across the network.

Spot Rate Snapshot 

*Reefer rate reflects DAT's June 2026 monthly average ($3.39/mile); week-over-week change reflects national spot market movement for the week of July 6-12, 2026.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

Several tariff and customs changes converged around the same window this month. The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff and simplified postal treatment for low-value parcels both expired July 24, 2026 under their own statutory terms. From that date, packages entering the U.S. through the postal network move to full standard customs duties and entry - the same treatment already required for commercial couriers - with duty assessed as a percentage of declared value and a complete 10-digit HTS classification required for every parcel. The administration has indicated it intends to pursue Section 301 action in the same window, with China, Thailand, Vietnam, and India cited as likely targets.

Section 232 tariffs of 100% on patented pharmaceutical products and related ingredients - spanning more than 130 HTSUS subheadings across chapters 29 and 30 - take effect July 31, 2026 for larger, named manufacturers, with smaller companies following on September 29, 2026. Generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars are excluded. Companies with approved U.S. onshoring plans qualify for a reduced 20% rate from September 29, 2026 through April 2, 2030, and those with both onshoring and most-favored-nation pricing agreements qualify for a 0% rate.

On metals, a new Section 232 Aluminum Production Investment Incentive Program (effective July 20, 2026) allows companies investing in new U.S. primary aluminum production to import primary aluminum tied to expected output at half the standard Section 232 rate. Separately, CBP guidance effective July 30, 2026 requires importers of certain copper articles (HTSUS 8544.42.10, 8544.42.20, 8544.42.90, and 8544.49.10) to report the primary country of smelt and country of cast in ACE.

On the refund side, following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling that IEEPA did not authorize the tariffs imposed under that authority, CBP's CAPE system has processed a growing share of IEEPA-related refunds: as of July 10, 2026, CBP had repaid $86.3 billion to importers, with $121.75 billion accepted for processing, and June marking the largest single month at $49.1 billion paid out. CAPE Phase 3 processing, covering finally liquidated entries for importers who filed at the Court of International Trade, remains on track to advance later this month.

Separately, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico began their first formal USMCA joint review on July 1, 2026. The U.S. has stated it did not agree to extend the agreement in its current form, which triggers an annual review process that could continue through 2036 unless the parties reach agreement sooner. All current USMCA rights and obligations - including preferential tariffs, rules of origin, investment protections, and dispute settlement mechanisms - remain fully in effect while bilateral negotiations, including U.S.-Mexico talks on automotive rules of origin and steel and aluminum trade, continue.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Brent crude traded near $97 per barrel as of July 24, 2026 (WTI opened at $92.39), after touching $98.49 the prior day. Oil has risen sharply this month as supply-disruption concerns expanded from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, an increasingly important alternative route for Saudi crude exports; prices pulled back nearly 4% late in the week on reports of renewed diplomatic efforts in the region. For context, Brent averaged $85 per barrel in June - down from a 52-week intraday high of $120.88 reached on April 30 amid earlier Gulf conflict - underscoring how volatile the crude market has been through 2026. A precise year-to-date percentage change was not available at time of publishing.

No major new shipping-lane disruptions were reported this week beyond the ongoing Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea risk premium already reflected in crude and, by extension, bunker and jet fuel costs.

On the U.S. economic front, the most recent nonfarm payrolls report (June 2026) showed employment rising by just 57,000, well below the roughly 115,000 consensus estimate and a sharp slowdown from May's downwardly revised 129,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, though largely because labor force participation fell to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. ISM's Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3% in June, down 0.7 point from May but still marking the 20th consecutive month of overall economic expansion. July nonfarm payrolls and ISM Manufacturing data had not yet been released as of this report's publication and are expected in early August 2026.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Conditions remain mixed across modes rather than moving in a single direction. Air and ocean rates are both cooling from recent highs as peak-season pressure eases and carriers add back capacity, while truckload capacity is loosening in some lanes even as diesel costs climb alongside the broader crude rally. Shippers should be aware that transit reliability, not just cost, can be affected as carriers continue to manage blank sailings and shifting capacity across transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes.

The trade compliance landscape remains in motion, with the Section 122 global tariff and simplified postal entry both expiring July 24, new Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs beginning July 31, and Section 301 action anticipated around the same window. Shippers with pending IEEPA-related duty exposure should continue to track CBP's CAPE refund rollout, and companies with cross-border exposure under USMCA should stay attentive to the ongoing joint review process, since current preferential treatment remains in effect but the framework is under active negotiation.

Energy markets remain sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, which touch bunker and jet fuel costs and, in turn, air and ocean surcharges as well as trucking fuel surcharges. Meanwhile, a cooling labor market alongside a manufacturing sector still in expansion territory point to an economy that is decelerating but not contracting - a backdrop worth watching for its effect on freight demand into the back half of the year.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.