BTX Blog

SUMMARY

Air Freight: Global air cargo rates were roughly flat in August after a sharp July correction, but remain 18.1% above year-ago levels; China–U.S. lanes are up 28.7% year-over-year while capacity tightens on AI and semiconductor demand.

Ocean Freight: The Drewry World Container Index held at $4,465 per 40ft container, with transpacific rates firming on new blank sailings while Asia–Europe softens as capacity returns to that lane.

Trucking: DAT dry van spot rates eased slightly to $2.21/mile, but load-to-truck ratios across all three equipment types are rising sharply as carrier capacity contracts ahead of Q4 peak season.

Trade Compliance: Section 232 metals tariffs remain in force with a new copper country-of-origin reporting deadline arriving September 14; IEEPA-based tariffs remain terminated following the Supreme Court's February ruling, with refund proceedings still pending.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude has climbed to $97.79/barrel, up nearly 47% year-to-date amid Middle East tensions, while August payrolls (+162,000) and a fifth straight month of ISM manufacturing expansion (54.6%) point to resilient U.S. demand.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) was roughly unchanged across August, a reversal from a steep 8.6% month-over-month decline in July, and stands 18.1% above August 2025 levels. The July pullback reflected easing fuel costs, recovering belly and freighter capacity, and new EU import regulations that disrupted Asia–Europe e-commerce volumes; that correction has since stabilized rather than continued into August.

Corridor performance remains uneven. China-to-U.S. rates are up 28.7% year-over-year, continuing to outperform on strong demand, while China-to-Europe rates are down 11.3% for the month as the EU's new €3 low-value package charge curbs cross-border e-commerce shipments. Hong Kong and Shanghai outbound corridors (BAI30, BAI80) and the London Heathrow and Chicago O'Hare gateway indices (BAI40, BAI50) each posted month-over-month declines of roughly 6% to 11% in July before the August stabilization, with Hong Kong-to-Europe (BAI31) the softest lane in the dataset.

IATA's most recently published cargo data (July 2026) shows global air cargo demand up 3.9% year-over-year (4.7% for international operations), with the industry-wide cargo load factor at 46.0%, a full percentage point higher than a year ago. Available cargo capacity (ACTK) grew a more modest 1.7%, meaning demand growth is outpacing capacity additions and keeping load factors elevated. North America posted the strongest demand growth among major regions (+4.8%) despite a 1.5% capacity contraction, tightening that market further.

Outlook: Cargo tonnage was up roughly 6% year-over-year in August, with continued Middle East conflict, AI and semiconductor-driven demand out of Taiwan, and fuel costs (up 8.2% through late August on U.S.–Iran tensions) all keeping upward pressure on rates. Hyperscaler data-center buildouts are a wildcard for peak-season volatility heading into Q4.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) composite held steady at $4,465 per 40ft container for the week of September 3, as transpacific gains offset Asia–Europe declines. Shanghai–Los Angeles rates rose 5% to $7,185 per 40ft, and Shanghai–New York climbed 3% to $9,587, while Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 5% to $4,092 and Shanghai–Genoa dropped 10% to $4,368.

Capacity management is diverging by trade lane. On the transpacific, carriers have announced six blank sailings for the coming week, double the two seen this week, signaling a deliberate tightening of capacity that Drewry expects will keep rates stable in the near term given resilient demand. On Asia–Europe, blank sailings are set to drop from four to one, injecting capacity back into a lane where cargo demand is softening; Drewry expects a modest rate decline there as a result.

Several operational factors are shaping current conditions: Suez Canal transits are accelerating as more carriers resume routing through the corridor, while geopolitical risk remains elevated in the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz. Typhoon Saudel constrained several Chinese ports during the reporting period, and Panama Canal daily transits are limited to 34 in early September, stepping down to 32 later in the month, with Neo-Panamax vessel transits capped at nine per day.

Outlook: The divergence between a tightening transpacific and a loosening Asia–Europe lane is likely to persist in the near term. Continued monitoring of blank-sailing announcements and canal transit restrictions will be important, as both are actively shifting effective capacity week to week.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT spot rate data shows dry van linehaul rates (excluding fuel) at $2.21 per mile for the week ending August 21, down 1.6% week-over-week but up 35.6% year-over-year. Reefer rates held nearly flat at $2.63 per mile for the same week (down 0.2% week-over-week, up 32.5% year-over-year), while flatbed rates came in at $2.67 per mile for the week ending August 28, down 1.2% week-over-week and up 32.2% year-over-year.

Load-to-truck ratios are rising across every equipment type, a sign that available capacity is contracting faster than freight volumes. The flatbed load-to-truck ratio has more than doubled year-over-year to 41.84, driven by trucks pulling back into multi-month infrastructure and data-center projects that are limiting the equipment available to rebalance into other freight. Reefer's ratio climbed to 21.10 and dry van's to 9.88, both well above year-ago levels even as underlying freight demand remains comparatively soft — indicating the tightening is being driven more by capacity exiting the market than by a surge in shipments.

National average diesel prices reached $5.599 per gallon as of August 31, the highest sustained level of 2026 and up 50.1% year-over-year, with California diesel running as high as $7.218 per gallon — a $2.03 regional premium over the Gulf Coast. Fuel costs remain a meaningful driver of total transportation cost even as linehaul rates ease. With September serving as the final month for carriers to firm up commitments ahead of Q4 peak season, capacity conditions are likely to stay tight into the fourth quarter.

Spot Rate Snapshot

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs, finding that only Congress holds that constitutional power. As a result, all IEEPA-based tariffs — including the trafficking tariffs on Canada (35%), Mexico (25%) and China (10%), the broader reciprocal tariffs (10–41%) applied to nearly all trading partners, and secondary tariffs on Brazil (40%) and India (25%) — ceased collection at 12:00 a.m. Eastern time on February 24, 2026. The de minimis suspension (eliminating duty-free treatment for shipments under $800) was preserved under separate legal authority via Executive Order 14388. Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs were not affected by the ruling. The Supreme Court remanded refund proceedings to lower courts, with the Court of International Trade expected to lead that process; no specific refund timeline has been established as of this writing.

Section 232 metals tariffs remain very much in force and continue to evolve. Since April 6, 2026, tariffs apply to the full customs value of covered steel, aluminum, and copper articles rather than just the metal content. A temporary rate structure took effect June 8, 2026 and runs through December 31, 2027: 50% on products made entirely or almost entirely of aluminum, steel, or copper; 25% on derivative articles substantially composed of these metals; a 15% transitional rate for metal-intensive industrial and electrical grid equipment; and a reduced 10% rate for products made with U.S.-smelted or cast metal (the U.S.-origin threshold required to qualify was lowered from 95% to 85%).

Importers of copper articles should note an approaching compliance deadline: mandatory reporting of primary country of smelt and country of cast began July 30, 2026 for specific HTSUS classifications (8544.42.10, 8544.42.20, 8544.42.90, 8544.49.10). Beginning September 14, 2026, CBP's ACE system will reject entry summaries missing this information with a fatal F794 error, so importers of affected copper products should confirm their documentation and supply chain records are current before that date.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Crude oil prices have risen sharply this year: Brent crude closed at $97.79 per barrel on September 8, up 0.65% on the day and roughly 47.3% year-to-date, while WTI crude stood at approximately $92.67–$92.83 per barrel, up about 1.5% on the day and 48.0% year-to-date. The rally has been driven in large part by escalating Middle East tensions, including continued U.S.–Iran friction.

Geopolitical shipping risk remains active in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden, where U.S. maritime authorities' advisory (in effect through September 22, 2026) continues to warn that Houthi forces pose an ongoing threat to commercial vessels, particularly those with Israeli, U.S., or UK associations. A Houthi attack on a Saudi oil tanker was reported in late August, underscoring that the threat, while reduced since the late-2025 ceasefire, has not been eliminated. Vessel operators are advised to coordinate with U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and register with UKMTO before transiting the region.

On the domestic economic front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, well above the 31,000 average monthly gain of the prior twelve months, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% year-over-year. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.6% in August, marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion for the manufacturing sector.

US Economic Pulse — Most Recent Readings

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

This week's data points to a supply chain environment defined by tightening capacity across nearly every mode rather than by demand shocks. In air and ocean, carriers are actively managing capacity through blank sailings and fleet deployment decisions, which means available space — not just price — is the variable shippers should watch most closely heading into peak season.

In trucking, rising load-to-truck ratios across dry van, reefer, and flatbed equipment reflect capacity exiting the market, particularly as flatbed trucks remain committed to long-duration infrastructure and data-center projects. Shippers with time-sensitive or specialized equipment needs should be aware that booking lead times may need to extend as September closes out the window for carriers to commit ahead of Q4.

On the trade compliance side, the termination of IEEPA-based tariffs has simplified duty treatment for many shipments, but Section 232 metals tariffs remain a significant and evolving compliance burden — particularly the new copper country-of-origin reporting requirement taking effect September 14. Importers of steel, aluminum, and copper products should confirm their customs documentation is current well ahead of that deadline.

Finally, elevated oil prices and active geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Red Sea corridor continue to be the macro backdrop shippers should monitor, as both have downstream effects on fuel surcharges, vessel routing, and transit times across every mode covered in this report.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.