BTX Blog

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose 1.3% week-over-week, ending five consecutive weeks of decline, and remains up 19.6% year-over-year. Corridor performance is uneven, with Frankfurt-outbound rates up nearly 20% on the week while Heathrow-outbound rates fell sharply as Middle East capacity was restored.

Ocean Freight: The Drewry World Container Index climbed 1% to $4,297 per 40-foot container, led by gains on the Shanghai–Los Angeles and Shanghai–New York lanes. Carriers are layering in new surcharges, including a Panama Canal-related fee, even as published transpacific rate increases are being partially unwound by soft import demand.

Trucking: DAT dry van spot rates eased to $2.38 per mile for the week ending July 25 (most recent complete data), down modestly week-over-week but still up more than 45% year-over-year. Diesel prices jumped nearly 14% through July, pushing fuel surcharges higher even as load-to-truck ratios softened across dry van, reefer, and flatbed.

Trade Compliance: New Section 301 tariff surcharges of 10–12.5% took effect July 24 on goods from roughly 60 countries, with an additional 50% Canada-origin tariff scheduled for August 19. Separately, U.S. Customs has begun processing IEEPA tariff refund claims following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down that tariff authority.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude is trading near $85 per barrel and WTI near $79, both firming amid continued security incidents around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. July's jobs report showed payrolls essentially flat (-23,000) while ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6%, a seventh straight month of expansion.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index's global composite, BAI00, increased 1.3% week-over-week, snapping a five-week streak of declines. On a year-over-year basis the index remains up 19.6%, indicating that despite short-term volatility, global air cargo pricing continues to run well above 2025 levels.

Corridor-level performance diverged sharply this week. BAI20 (Frankfurt outbound) jumped 19.8% week-over-week and is up 32.1% year-over-year, the strongest reading among the major corridors tracked. BAI30 (Hong Kong outbound) rose a more modest 3.0% (+22.0% YoY), while BAI80 (Shanghai outbound) slipped 2.6% on the week, though still up 20.5% year-over-year, as China–Europe volumes cooled following the EU's July changes to its de minimis regime. BAI40 (London Heathrow outbound) fell sharply — down 24.9% week-over-week and now 11.6% below year-ago levels — as restored Middle East capacity added downward pressure on that corridor.

IATA's most recently published data, for June 2026, showed global air cargo demand up 8.5% year-over-year, outpacing 4.4% growth in available capacity. The global cargo load factor rose to 46.9%, a 1.7-percentage-point improvement from a year earlier — a signal that demand growth continues to outrun the industry's ability to add capacity in most regions except Latin America and the Caribbean.

Looking ahead, the rebound in BAI00 after five weeks of softness, combined with rising load factors, points to a market building toward the fall peak season. The divergence between strengthening corridors (Frankfurt, Hong Kong) and softening ones (Heathrow, Shanghai) suggests capacity and demand remain unevenly matched across regions heading into the September–October ramp-up.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry's World Container Index composite rose 1% in week 32 to $4,297 per 40-foot container, marking a rebound after a stretch of flat-to-declining readings. The move reflects renewed upward pressure across several major lanes, even as the broader index remains well below the peaks seen during prior disruption cycles.

Carriers scheduled roughly 58 blank sailings across major East-West trades between weeks 32 and 36 (August 3–September 6), representing about 8% of planned departures. Cancellations are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound trade, followed by Asia–North Europe/Mediterranean and transatlantic services. On several lanes, blanked capacity has grown far faster than scheduled capacity over the past several years — most sharply on Asia–North America East Coast routings — underscoring that blank sailings have become a routine tool carriers use to balance supply and demand rather than solely a response to weak volumes.

On the transpacific, published rate increases to the U.S. West Coast reaching $7,200–$7,300 per container met resistance from importers, with practical pricing settling into the mid-$5,000s and some spot bookings as low as $4,900 as forwarders offered blended and contract-allocation pricing. East Coast pricing also rose but softened more gradually given tighter capacity. On Asia–Europe lanes, Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $5,894 and Shanghai–New York climbed 4% to $7,893, while Shanghai–Rotterdam held flat at $4,653 and Shanghai–Genoa eased 2% to $5,506.

Carriers are also layering in new ancillary fees, including a Panama Canal-related surcharge of roughly $150 expected mid-month, alongside similar draft-restriction fees introduced by other major carriers. These charges appear intended to establish rate floors near $5,500–$6,000 on affected lanes, independent of base rate movements.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT spot rates eased modestly for the week ending July 25, 2026 (the most recent complete data available), with dry van at $2.38 per mile (–6 cents week-over-week), refrigerated at $2.72 per mile (–8 cents week-over-week), and flatbed at $2.87 per mile (–8 cents week-over-week). Despite the weekly pullback, all three segments remain well above year-ago levels, with dry van up more than 45% and flatbed up more than 40% year-over-year.

Load-to-truck ratios softened in tandem: the van ratio fell to 10.2 loads per available truck (from 10.7 the prior week), refrigerated to 17.8 (from 19.7), and flatbed to 40.7 (from 44.1). Total load posts on DAT One fell 9% week-over-week to 2.79 million, pointing to a seasonal cooling in spot demand — though ratios remain far above year-ago norms, indicating capacity is still comparatively tight on a longer-term view.

Diesel prices climbed sharply through July, rising from $4.67 per gallon on June 29 to $5.31 per gallon on July 27, an increase of nearly 14% that has pushed fuel surcharges higher and offset some of the relief shippers might otherwise have seen from softer linehaul rates. With load-to-truck ratios still elevated on a year-over-year basis and fuel costs trending upward, near-term capacity conditions are likely to stay comparatively tight heading into the fall shipping season.

Spot Rate Snapshot - Week Ending July 25, 2026

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

Several tariff actions took effect or advanced this week. On July 24, additional Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5%, depending on country of origin, took effect on goods from roughly 60 countries — including Canada, India, Mexico, Vietnam, Brazil, and China, among others — with a narrow grace period for goods loaded before the effective date. A separate 25% additional Section 301 tariff on specified Brazil-origin goods took effect July 22, and an additional 50% Section 338 tariff on select Canada-origin goods (with exclusions for energy products, potash, Section 232-covered items, fish, and critical minerals) is scheduled to take effect August 19.

On the Section 232 front, the Bureau of Industry and Security proposed on August 4 to expand steel, aluminum, and copper derivative tariffs to 14 additional product categories — including items such as aluminum powder, welding machine parts, cranes, and certain trailers — with a Federal Register notice published August 6 and a 21-day public comment period.

Separately, following the Supreme Court's ruling that struck down the administration's IEEPA-based tariff authority, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has begun processing related refund claims, and the Court of International Trade has ordered CBP to process refunds for a subset of “finally liquidated” entries. Importers should review entries by country of origin, confirm current HTS classifications, and monitor CBP guidance on the refund process as it develops.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Crude oil prices firmed this week, with Brent trading near $84.95 per barrel and WTI near $79.37 per barrel as of August 10, both up more than 1.5% on the day. Both benchmarks remain closely watched gauges of global energy supply and demand, with prices elevated relative to earlier in the year amid persistent geopolitical risk premiums tied to Middle East shipping security.

Red Sea shipping conditions have stabilized somewhat after a sharp initial disruption tied to a Houthi maritime blockade announcement in July. Vessel transits through the Bab el Mandeb strait, which fell as much as 24% at the height of the disruption, have leveled off near 266–269 vessels per week. Tanker traffic was hit hardest, down as much as 42% immediately following the blockade, and security incidents continued into August, including reported strikes near a Saudi-flagged tanker and in the Gulf of Aden. Notably, vessels have largely stayed within the Red Sea corridor rather than rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, instead adjusting cargo volumes and transit procedures to manage Suez Canal draught restrictions.

On the economic front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls changed little in July, down 23,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. ISM's Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6% in July, marking a seventh consecutive month of expansion and the strongest production reading since late 2021, with the employment subindex moving into expansion territory for the first time in 33 months.

US Economic Pulse — Most Recent Readings

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

This week's data points to a freight market with genuinely mixed signals: air and ocean indices are both showing renewed upward momentum after periods of softness, while trucking spot rates are easing week-over-week even as they remain well above year-ago levels. Shippers should be aware that these crosscurrents make it harder to read a single, consistent market direction right now.

On the compliance side, the pace of tariff activity remains elevated, with new Section 301 surcharges now in effect on dozens of countries, an additional Canada-origin tariff set to begin August 19, and a Section 232 expansion proposal moving through its comment period. Shippers with exposure to affected origin countries or product categories should stay closely engaged with their customs and compliance teams to understand how these changes affect classification and duty exposure on upcoming shipments.

Geopolitical risk also remains a factor to watch. Red Sea shipping has stabilized compared to July's disruption, but continued security incidents in the Gulf of Aden and around the Bab el Mandeb strait mean transit conditions could shift again with limited notice. Combined with an elevated level of blank sailings on major ocean trades this month, shippers moving time-sensitive cargo should build additional schedule flexibility into their planning.

Broader economic indicators continue to point to a resilient U.S. manufacturing sector alongside a labor market that is essentially treading water. Together with tightening air cargo load factors heading into peak season, this points to a supply chain environment where capacity and demand conditions across all modes warrant close, ongoing monitoring.


The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.