BTX Blog

SUMMARY

Jet fuel is more than double year-ago levels, crude oil is near $110 a barrel and volatile diesel prices mean fuel surcharges are likely to remain a significant, and fast-moving, part of transportation costs in air, ocean and trucking through the end of the year. Air cargo load factors are rising while capacity stays flat, transpacific ocean carriers are continuing blank sailings, and truck posts in North America are well below last year. On the positive side, the gradual return of container services to the Suez Canal is restoring shorter Asia–Europe routings and adding capacity, which may improve transit reliability for European trade.

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Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) slipped 2.1% week over week in the seven days to October 12 as China’s Golden Week paused volumes, but it remains 24.3% higher than a year ago. Jet fuel prices more than double last year’s levels are keeping air costs elevated heading into peak season.

Ocean Freight: Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft on October 15, led by a rebound on Asia–Europe lanes. Transpacific rates remain firm on strong U.S. import demand, while carriers returning to the Suez Canal are adding Asia–Europe capacity.

Trucking: DAT national spot rates eased slightly for the week of October 10–16: dry van $3.09/mile, reefer $3.66, flatbed $3.64. Lower diesel accounted for nearly all of the dip, and capacity remains tight, with truck posts 21%–27% below last year.

Trade Compliance: CBP opened Phase 3 of its IEEPA refund process (CAPE) on October 6, with about $122 billion in refunds and interest already certified. Section 338 duties of up to 50% on select Canadian goods remain in place, with no exemption for USMCA-qualifying goods.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude traded near $110 per barrel on October 19 amid Middle East and Strait of Hormuz supply risks, roughly 79% above a year ago. U.S. payrolls grew just 29,000 in September, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI held in expansion at 54.5.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), produced by TAC Index, fell 2.1% week over week in the seven days to October 12, a dip TAC described as “not unusual for the Golden Week holiday period in China.” Even so, the global index stands 24.3% higher year over year. A weekly point value for BAI00 was not published in the sources reviewed (Data unavailable at time of publishing); the most recent published level is the September monthly average of 2,450.40 points, up 1.17% from August. The reading for the week to October 19 had not been released at the time of publishing.

Corridor performance was mixed. London Heathrow outbound (BAI40) jumped 12.1% week over week and is up 44.7% year over year, and Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) gained 3.0% (up 47.7% YoY), reflecting strong transatlantic demand. Hong Kong outbound (BAI30) was essentially flat at +0.2% (up 20.5% YoY), while Shanghai outbound (BAI80) fell 2.1% on the holiday slowdown but is still 20.5% above last year.

IATA’s latest data (August 2026) shows global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, up 4.4% year over year while capacity was flat (−0.1%). That pushed the global cargo load factor to 46.0%, up 2.0 percentage points. North America led demand growth at +6.6% while capacity fell 2.5%, lifting the region’s load factor 3.6 points to 42.0%. Asia–North America was the fastest-growing trade lane (+13.2%), while Gulf-linked corridors contracted because of the Middle East conflict. Rising load factors with flat capacity signal a market where available space is being used more fully.

Looking ahead, the market remains firm entering the traditional peak season. Large e-commerce and product-launch shippers have already secured peak capacity, and Air Cargo News reports that AI and data-center “hyperscaler” shipments, which have not yet secured space, could push rates sharply higher. Jet fuel is a major cost driver: IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor rose 3.1% in the week to October 9 and is up 112% year over year. On Asia–Europe, a new €2 EU-wide parcel handling fee taking effect November 1 could weigh on e-commerce volumes.

Week to October 12, 2026. Source: TAC Index / Baltic Exchange via The STAT Trade Times and Air Cargo News.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) composite rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on October 15, driven mainly by higher Asia–Europe rates. The prior week’s composite was down about 2%, underscoring continued week-to-week volatility. A year-over-year comparison was not included in Drewry’s latest release (Data unavailable at time of publishing).

Carriers continue to manage capacity actively. Drewry reports six blank sailings on the transpacific for the coming week, unchanged from this week, while Asia–Europe blank sailings fall from six to two. At the same time, Suez Canal routings are adding effective capacity: Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 1,228 Suez transits in September, the busiest month since December 2023 but still 39% below pre-crisis levels, with containership traffic up 40% month over month.

On Asia–Europe, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have moved the AE5, AE11 and ME2 services back to the Suez route, with the AE12/SE1 Asia–Mediterranean service following from October 27. CMA CGM has announced a full Suez return in December, and COSCO, Yang Ming and OOCL are weighing or trialing transits. The return is gradual and described by carriers as reversible: on October 7, a CU Lines containership was fired upon in the southern Red Sea, with all crew safe. On the transpacific, strong U.S. import demand is keeping rates high, with Shanghai–Los Angeles near $7,900.

Carriers have announced FAK rate increases to $4,500–$4,800 per 40ft on Asia–Europe from October 19, though Drewry notes implementation is uncertain given the added Suez capacity. Drewry expects transpacific rates to be less volatile and Asia–Europe rates to remain stable next week, with ongoing volatility overall as carriers adjust capacity around post-holiday demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

Source: Drewry World Container Index, October 15, 2026.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT national average spot rates eased slightly for the week of October 10–16 (Week 42). Dry van averaged $3.09 per mile (down 3 cents), reefer $3.66 (down 2 cents) and flatbed $3.64 (down 4 cents). Linehaul rates, which exclude fuel, were essentially flat: van $2.26, reefer $2.76 (up 1 cent) and flatbed $2.65..

Load-to-truck ratios remain high by historical standards: 9.7 loads per truck for dry van, 15.8 for reefer and 36.5 for flatbed, which edged higher. DAT’s Dean Croke notes that “capacity remains the key factor in pricing,” with truck posts 21%–27% below a year ago and load posts 12%–23% higher. Flatbed linehaul is running 26% above its nine-year seasonal average. High ratios mean more loads are competing for each available truck, a sign of a tight market.

Fuel was the main driver this week: lower diesel prices accounted for nearly all of the rate decline, trimming 3 to 4 cents per mile from average fuel surcharges. DAT’s 35-day forecast projects van linehaul easing to $2.23 per mile by late November, reefer edging up to $2.78 and flatbed slipping to $2.59. With crude oil volatile, fuel surcharges could move quickly in either direction in the weeks ahead.

National averages including fuel, October 10–16, 2026. Source: DAT Freight & Analytics via AJOT.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

IEEPA refunds, CAPE Phase 3: Following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling against IEEPA tariffs, CBP reports it has processed the vast majority of refund claims, with about $122 billion in refunds and interest certified and sent to the U.S. Treasury. Phase 3 of CBP’s CAPE refund process opened October 6, allowing eligible importers covered by the court’s reliquidation order to submit additional refund requests. Importers who paid IEEPA duties should review their eligibility with their customs broker.

Section 338 duties on Canadian goods: Duties of up to 50% on about $20 billion in Canadian goods (554 HTS lines, including alcohol, dairy, maple syrup, plywood and hockey equipment) have been in effect since August 22. Unlike many recent tariffs, USMCA-qualifying goods are not exempt, and the duties stack on top of other applicable duties; goods already subject to Section 232 are excluded. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on 874 U.S. product lines, scheduled for September 8. The U.S. declined to renew USMCA at its July 1 joint review, triggering annual reviews. Cross-border shippers should confirm classification and duty exposure on affected lines.

Merchandise Processing Fee (FY2027): Effective October 1, the ad valorem MPF rate remains 0.3464%, with the minimum fee rising to $34.58 and the maximum to $670.86. The Harbor Maintenance Fee is unchanged.
U.S.–China tariff reductions: On September 27, the U.S. and China agreed to reduced tariff treatment for 77 product categories, including toys, child safety seats, Christmas ornaments, microwave ovens, towels and bed linens. Final product lists, rates and timing still depend on each country’s implementation process.

Section 232 and other actions: CBP issued updated guidance on October 2 clarifying Section 232 pharmaceutical import requirements. Section 232 duties on polysilicon and derivatives (10%–15%, plus minimum import prices) take effect December 4, and higher timber and lumber rates are scheduled for January 1, 2027. Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10%–12.5% on goods from 60 economies remain in force, and duty-free de minimis treatment remains suspended.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Oil: Brent crude traded at about $110 per barrel on October 19, up 5.6% from a month ago and roughly 79% above a year ago. WTI futures settled at $101.41 on October 16 after a 10.4% weekly gain, before easing to about $98.60 on Monday. Year to date, Brent is up approximately 80% and WTI approximately 70% from their levels near $61 and $57 at the start of 2026. Prices softened slightly early this week after the U.S. waived new sanctions and tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, and the IEA agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel.

Geopolitical shipping disruptions: Middle East supply risk remains the dominant factor. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz (not independently confirmed), and a missile aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port was reportedly intercepted. In the Red Sea, a containership was fired upon off Yemen on October 7 even as Suez traffic recovers. A Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Ryazan refinery added to concerns about diesel supply.

U.S. economic pulse: Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, well below the 90,000 forecast, and July and August were revised down a combined 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Manufacturing is holding up better: the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5% (August: 54.6%), its ninth straight month of expansion, with New Orders up to 55.3. The ISM Prices Index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, citing steel, aluminum, tariffs and petroleum-based products, and supplier deliveries slowed for a tenth straight month.

US Economic Pulse — Most Recent Readings

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via First Trust; Institute for Supply Management.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Fuel is the common thread across every mode this week. Jet fuel more than double year-ago levels, crude oil near $110 a barrel and volatile diesel prices mean fuel surcharges are likely to remain a significant, and fast-moving, part of transportation costs in air, ocean and trucking through the end of the year.

Capacity is tightening as peak season approaches. Air cargo load factors are rising while capacity stays flat, transpacific ocean carriers are continuing blank sailings, and truck posts in North America are well below last year. Shippers should be aware that space may be harder to secure on short notice over the next several weeks, especially for time-sensitive Asia–North America freight.

On the positive side, the gradual return of container services to the Suez Canal is restoring shorter Asia–Europe routings and adding capacity, which may improve transit reliability for European trade. That return remains conditional on security in the Red Sea, so contingency planning for longer Cape routings is still prudent.

For cross-border and import shippers, the compliance landscape continues to shift. The IEEPA refund window, Section 338 duties on Canadian goods with no USMCA exemption, and upcoming Section 232 effective dates all warrant a review of classifications and duty exposure. Meanwhile, softer U.S. job growth alongside steady manufacturing activity points to a mixed demand outlook heading into 2027.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily. If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.