Industry News

SUMMARY

Air Freight: Global air freight rates extended gains for a third consecutive week, with the BAI Index up roughly 6% YoY. Asia‑outbound corridors led the climb — Hong Kong (BAI30) rose +5.4% WoW and Shanghai (BAI80) +0.8% WoW — while Frankfurt softened.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index slipped 1% to $2,216/40ft, its third straight weekly decline, but Transpacific eastbound rates ticked up 2% to the West Coast and 10% to the East Coast as Strait of Hormuz disruption pushes premiums higher.

Trucking: DAT spot rates climbed across all three modes for the week ending May 2 — dry van $2.37/mi, reefer $2.72/mi, flatbed $3.05/mi — with the dry van load‑to‑truck ratio up 21% WoW to 8.68 ahead of CVSA International Roadcheck (May 12‑14).

Trade Compliance: CBP is targeting on or about May 11 to begin issuing the first IEEPA refunds through the new CAPE Phase 1 portal, following the Supreme Court's February ruling that invalidated IEEPA tariffs covering an estimated $166 billion in duties.

Commodities & Economy: Brent traded near $116/bbl on May 5 — about $56 higher YoY — on Strait of Hormuz volatility. ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7 in April for an 18th straight month of expansion; April nonfarm payrolls release May 8 (consensus +165K).

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) extended its rebound, rising for a third consecutive week as fuel constraints, capacity discipline, and resilient e‑commerce volumes offset what is traditionally a softer May market. The headline index is tracking roughly +6% year‑on‑year per recent TAC Index reads, reflecting a market that has stayed firmer than seasonal norms would suggest.

Corridor performance continues to diverge. Hong Kong outbound (BAI30) jumped +5.4% week‑on‑week and is up about +38% YoY, while Shanghai outbound (BAI80) rose +0.8% WoW for a +33% YoY gain. By contrast, Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) eased ‑2.1% WoW, though it remains +6.1% higher YoY. The pattern points to sustained ex‑Asia demand, with European origins comparatively flat.

IATA's most recent industrywide data shows airline cargo demand up +11.2% in February and +5.6% in January, with the international passenger load factor at 83.6% in March (+3.1 ppt YoY). Widebody belly capacity remains structurally tight as the aircraft order backlog stays at historic highs, and IATA still projects 71.6 million tonnes of cargo to move in 2026 with cargo revenue near $158 billion.

The near‑term outlook leans firm. With Strait of Hormuz disruption rerouting some commodities to air, Asia‑US e‑commerce volumes intact, and capacity additions limited, rates from Asian gateways are likely to stay elevated through the summer. Ex‑Europe lanes look more balanced and could continue to drift.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry's World Container Index declined for a third consecutive week, easing 1% to $2,216 per 40‑ft container as of April 30, with softer prints across Asia‑Europe, Transpacific, and Transatlantic trades. Excess capacity and a low‑demand backdrop continue to weigh on the composite, even as elevated bunker costs and geopolitical risk apply counter‑pressure.

Trade lane detail remains mixed. Shanghai‑Genoa fell 1% to $3,039 and Shanghai‑Rotterdam slipped 1% to $2,127. On the Transpacific, Shanghai‑Los Angeles held flat at $2,930 while Shanghai‑New York eased 2% to $3,483. However, Freightos data captured later in the week showed Transpacific eastbound rates ticking up 2% to the West Coast and 10% to the East Coast. The spot market has added roughly $1,000/FEU (about +50%) since the Iran conflict began. Drewry's Intra‑Asia Container Index also strengthened, +3% WoW to $918/40ft, driven by US‑Israel‑Iran tensions.

Capacity management is the current story on the supply side. Drewry's tracker shows 43 cancelled sailings out of 689 scheduled departures across the next five weeks (a 6% blank ratio), concentrated in Asia‑Europe/Med (42%) and Transpacific eastbound (40%). Schedule reliability has reached a three‑year high as carriers absorb new tonnage; Gemini Cooperation reported zero East‑West cancellations in the latest period. The EU ETS is now fully operational at 100% emissions coverage in 2026, with charges up another 35‑50% in this final phase.

Carrier news is also tariff‑shaped: importers are watching for whether savings from IEEPA refunds will reset booking patterns, while the Red Sea / Suez return is being approached cautiously. A material return to Suez routings would initially cause European hub congestion before easing rates.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT spot rates moved higher across all three modes for the week ending May 2, 2026, with capacity tightening into end‑of‑month shipping volumes and the upcoming CVSA International Roadcheck inspection event. Dry van averaged $2.37 per mile (+$0.01 WoW), reefer averaged $2.72 (+$0.01), and flatbed averaged $3.05 (+$0.03). Flatbed has now risen for seven consecutive weeks, adding 38 cents over that span and sitting within five cents of the June 2022 record.

The national dry van load‑to‑truck ratio jumped 21% WoW to 8.68 — a four‑year high — on a 6% rise in load postings paired with capacity withdrawal. The flatbed L/T ratio remains structurally tight at 64.89 (volumes 50% above last year and 39% above the five‑year average) even after a 10% pullback. Reefer is positioned for the most acute squeeze in coming weeks, with Mother's Day overlap with the CVSA blitz (May 12‑14) further compressing perishable capacity.

Diesel remains a meaningful input cost as Brent hovers near $116/bbl on Strait of Hormuz tensions; fuel surcharges are likely to track higher in the coming pricing cycle. The near‑term setup — tighter L/T ratios, the Roadcheck event, and produce season ramping — suggests the upward bias on spot rates will continue through May before any seasonal moderation.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

CBP's Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) Phase 1 went live in the ACE Portal on April 20, 2026, providing the operational mechanism for refunds of duties paid under IEEPA following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 ruling that invalidated the IEEPA tariff authority (a decision that affects an estimated $166 billion in duties paid by more than 330,000 businesses). CBP is targeting 'on or about May 11' to begin issuing the first refunds.

Phase 1 is narrow: it covers certain unliquidated entries and certain entries liquidated within 80 days of the CAPE submission date. Filings can only be made by the IOR or the licensed broker who filed the original entry, via CSV upload to the ACE Portal — not through ABI. A single broker submission can include up to 9,999 entries on behalf of multiple IORs. Once accepted, refunds are expected to issue within roughly 60‑90 days, absent compliance review.Section 232 tariffs remain in force — the SCOTUS ruling did not touch them. The April 2 White House proclamation updating Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper became effective April 6, 2026, with steel at 25% and aluminum at 10‑25% applicable to most origins. Section 301 tariffs on China likewise remain in effect. Importers should continue to evaluate origin, classification, and exclusion strategies for goods touched by 232/301.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Oil Prices: Brent crude traded near $116.55/bbl on May 5, 2026, with intraday volatility driving prices between roughly $112 and $118 as the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI traded near $102/bbl. Both benchmarks are roughly $50‑$56 higher than year‑ago levels and have surged about 30‑40% YTD on the conflict premium.

Geopolitical Disruption: The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant supply chain risk. Commercial traffic through the strait has dropped more than 90% since the late‑February escalation, with only 191 vessels recorded crossing in April. The US blockade of Iranian ports continues, and on May 5 President Trump paused the US effort to guide stranded vessels out of the strait pending negotiations. Cruise traffic has been suspended and rerouting has lengthened transit times across the wider region.

US Economic Pulse: The April Employment Situation report releases May 8 with consensus at +165K nonfarm payrolls (vs. +175K prior); March printed +178K, the strongest month since December 2024. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7% in April, unchanged from March, with New Orders strengthening to 54.1% (+0.6 ppt) while Production eased to 53.4% (‑1.7 ppt). The 52.7% reading corresponds to a roughly 1.8% real GDP growth pace.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

This week's data reinforces a market that is firming on the surface even as broader fundamentals look balanced. Air freight ex‑Asia is tightening into early summer, ocean Transpacific eastbound is rising on Middle East risk premium, and US trucking is pulling capacity ahead of the CVSA blitz. Shippers should be aware that the current setup favors disciplined planning windows and visibility, particularly for time‑sensitive freight.

On the trade compliance side, the IEEPA refund process moving live is a meaningful working‑capital event for importers who paid IEEPA duties since 2025. The narrow Phase 1 scope means most claims will fall to a later phase, but eligible Phase 1 filings can begin moving through the CAPE portal now. Section 232 and 301 duties remain unchanged and continue to drive landed‑cost decisions.

Energy and macro signals are mixed. The 18th consecutive month of ISM manufacturing expansion supports a resilient demand backdrop, but oil prices near $116 Brent — combined with Strait of Hormuz disruption — point to higher fuel surcharges and longer routings that touch the Persian Gulf. April payrolls will sharpen the picture on May 8.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily. If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager.