Industry News

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The BAI00 global air freight benchmark gained +2.8% week-over-week as of June 1 and remains +32.7% year-on-year, driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure diverting cargo to air and early peak-season pull-forward from Asia.

Ocean Freight: The Drewry World Container Index rose 3% to $2,800/40ft as of May 28, with Transpacific (Shanghai-NY +6%) and Asia-Europe (Shanghai-Genoa +4%) leading gains; peak season demand is arriving earlier than usual, driven by a July 1 bunker adjustment deadline.

Trucking: North American spot trucking rates are firming: dry van at $2.68/mile, reefer at $3.12/mile, and flatbed at $3.60/mile; the van load-to-truck ratio surged to 12.92 from 7.2 in April, signaling a tightening capacity environment.

Trade Compliance: The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in February 2026; CBP launched its CAPE Phase 1 refund portal on April 20. Simultaneously, expanded Section 232 duties (up to 50% on steel/aluminum/copper-intensive products) took effect April 6.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude is at ~$96.65/barrel (+$31 YoY) as the Iran war and Hormuz closure sustain a geopolitical risk premium; ISM Manufacturing PMI for May hit 54.0%—its highest reading since May 2022—and U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) advanced +2.8% week-over-week in the period ending June 1, 2026, bringing its year-on-year gain to +32.7%. This sustained elevation reflects a market that has been fundamentally reshaped by the 2026 Iran conflict and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which began February 28, 2026. With ocean routing through the Persian Gulf largely unavailable, shippers across energy, electronics, and industrial sectors have shifted incremental volumes to air, compressing available belly and freighter capacity on key long-haul lanes.

Corridor performance this week was mixed but broadly constructive. China-North America air freight prices increased approximately 1% week-over-week, reflecting steady demand from shippers pulling forward inventory ahead of the EU's July low-value e-commerce fee (a flat €3 surcharge on sub-threshold imports). China-Northern Europe declined 6% week-over-week as some demand normalized after a May surge, while Northern Europe-North America eased 2%. Despite these near-term fluctuations, the Freightos Air Index benchmark remains more than 30% above pre-conflict levels on virtually all major routes. Specific corridor index data (BAI20, BAI30, BAI40, BAI80) for this week's publication was unavailable at time of publishing via public channels; shippers should consult TAC Index's live dashboard for granular corridor-level data.

IATA's most recent Q1 2026 data showed the industry-wide cargo load factor at 46.1%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year, indicating that demand growth is broadly keeping pace with capacity additions. Intra-Asia posted the strongest load factor improvement (+1.9 ppt YoY), driven by robust regional trade flows and early manufacturing re-export activity. Air cargo demand through February 2026 was tracking +11.2% year-over-year, one of the strongest growth streaks in the post-pandemic era. The combination of high load factors and geopolitically elevated rates creates a tight environment with limited slack capacity to absorb further disruptions.

Looking ahead, the market faces two near-term catalysts: the EU's July e-commerce fee deadline, which is accelerating shipments from Chinese merchants, and any change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen intermittent passage attempts but remains largely constrained. Any easing of the Hormuz situation could reduce the air-diversion premium; conversely, a further escalation could drive rates to new 2026 highs. Seasonal peak demand typically arrives in Q3, providing additional structural support.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to $2,800 per 40-foot container as of May 28, 2026, continuing a multi-week upward trend. This marks a significant rebound from the softer levels seen in early 2026 and reflects the convergence of genuine demand pull-forward and deliberate carrier capacity management. Transpacific rates led the increase: Shanghai to New York climbed 6% to $4,597/40ft, and Shanghai to Los Angeles gained 3% to $3,473/40ft. On the Asia-Europe corridor, Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 3% to $2,861/40ft and Shanghai to Genoa jumped 4% to $4,253/40ft. Drewry anticipates further upward rate pressure in coming weeks as the peak season builds.

A key near-term driver is the anticipated July 1 bunker fuel adjustment factor (BAF) revision. Shippers are pulling forward bookings to avoid higher all-in costs post-adjustment, compressing June vessel space. Simultaneously, major carrier alliances on Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes have blanked approximately 43 sailings over the five-week window through June 7 (out of 689 scheduled departures), representing a roughly 6% capacity withdrawal. This proactive capacity management is a well-established carrier playbook: use blank sailings to sustain pricing discipline even when underlying demand would otherwise leave vessels partially empty.

Port conditions are broadly functional, though roll-over incidents are increasing as overbooking on peak-season services rises. The broader fleet capacity wave—unprecedented new vessel deliveries anticipated through 2026-2027—creates an overhang that carriers are working to offset. Beyond the immediate peak-season surge, market watchers expect rates to face renewed pressure in Q4 as the supply build overwhelms demand unless aggressive capacity management continues. The Red Sea/Hormuz rerouting dynamic continues to lengthen effective voyage times on Asia-Europe services, absorbing some of the new fleet capacity and providing structural support to rates.

Carrier surcharges are active across most trade lanes, including peak-season surcharges (PSS) and equipment imbalance fees. The July BAF adjustment is expected to add meaningfully to all-in rates on Asia-origin lanes. Shippers should be aware of cumulative surcharge stacking and its effect on total landed costs as we move into July.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

The North American trucking market is in an accelerating recovery phase in mid-2026. After more than two years of the so-called "freight recession," excess carrier capacity is finally exiting the system at scale. Truckload spot rates increased 16.5% year-over-year at the end of Q1 2026, and that momentum has continued into Q2. The most striking indicator is the national van load-to-truck ratio (LTR), which climbed to approximately 12.92 loads per available truck in mid-May—up sharply from an April average of 7.2. For context, a ratio above 6-7 generally indicates a carrier-favorable market. At 12.92, the market has shifted meaningfully toward tighter conditions, with shippers competing for available equipment.

Flatbed freight is showing the most dramatic tightening. The flatbed LTR reached 87.22 nationally in mid-June—up from 72.26 in April—as infrastructure spending, industrial activity, and construction materials demand drive flatbed requirements higher. Reefer markets remain capacity-sensitive with seasonal upside risk as summer produce and pharmaceutical shipping enters its peak window. Diesel prices, a key cost driver, are elevated: national average diesel was approximately $3.78/gallon in late April per the EIA, with West Coast (PADD-5) markets running above $4.95/gallon due to refinery turnarounds. The resulting fuel surcharges range from $0.42 to $0.55 per loaded mile on standard rates, with reefer operators needing $0.55–$0.68 to cover refrigeration unit fuel burn.

The near-term outlook favors further rate tightening. Carrier exits have reduced available equipment, driver availability remains constrained, and CSA/regulatory enforcement continues to sideline marginal operators. Shippers should be aware that the days of abundant spot truck availability at suppressed rates are giving way to a market where lead time and carrier relationships matter increasingly. Q3 seasonal demand—produce, back-to-school retail, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment—is expected to provide additional upward pressure.

DAT Spot Rate Summary

Note: Dry van and reefer rates reflect April 2026 averages per DAT; flatbed reflects mid-June 2026 national average. Load-to-truck ratio: Van 12.92 | Flatbed 87.22.

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

IEEPA Tariff Elimination & CBP Refund Program
On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a landmark 6-3 ruling striking down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a basis for imposing tariffs, finding that the statute does not authorize the President to levy duties. This decision vacated the IEEPA-based tariff structure that had been in place since early 2025. In response, CBP launched CAPE Phase 1—the Customs Automated Processing Environment—on April 20, 2026, enabling electronic filing of IEEPA tariff refund claims through the ACE Portal. Importers who paid IEEPA-based duties have a defined refund window; companies should work with their customs brokers or trade attorneys to assess eligibility and file promptly.

Section 232 Expanded Duties (Effective April 6, 2026)
Filling the tariff policy vacuum created by the IEEPA ruling, a new Section 232 proclamation took effect April 6, 2026, significantly expanding the scope and depth of metal-based duties. The new structure imposes a 50% tariff on products substantially composed of steel, aluminum, or copper (assessed on full customs value), a 25% tariff on derivative articles incorporating these metals, a 15% tariff on metal-intensive industrial and grid equipment through 2027, and a 10% tariff on products manufactured abroad using American metals. These changes affect a broad range of industrial inputs, capital equipment, and consumer goods. Companies with metal-intensive supply chains should conduct immediate HS code-level tariff classification reviews to assess exposure.

Section 122 Global Tariff — Invalidated
Following the IEEPA ruling, the Administration imposed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. However, the Court of International Trade invalidated this Section 122 tariff on May 7, 2026, ruling it exceeded statutory authority. The legal landscape for executive tariff authority is in active flux; shippers and importers should monitor Federal Register notices and CBP guidance closely for further developments and potential new tariff vehicles.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Oil Prices: Geopolitical Risk Premium Sustained

Crude oil prices remain sharply elevated as the 2026 Iran conflict, now more than 95 days old, continues to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude was trading at approximately $96.65 per barrel as of June 2—roughly $31 per barrel higher than a year ago—and WTI futures were in a range of $93.64–$96.04/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply and 20% of global LNG transits, has seen commercial traffic fall by more than 90% since the outbreak of the conflict on February 28. While Iran has intermittently permitted limited vessel passage—including a reported 26-vessel convoy in mid-May—the situation remains highly fluid. Elevated crude prices are flowing through to jet fuel, bunker fuel, and diesel, adding to total logistics costs across all modes.

Geopolitical Shipping Disruptions

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis represents the most significant maritime chokepoint disruption since the Red Sea/Houthi attacks of 2024. Unlike the Red Sea situation, which allowed most vessels to re-route around the Cape of Good Hope with extended transit times, the Hormuz closure has no equivalent re-routing option for Persian Gulf energy cargoes. LNG and crude tankers have largely stopped transiting, forcing buyers to source supply from alternative origins—primarily the U.S., West Africa, and Norway—at higher cost. Container vessels serving Middle East-Asia and Middle East-Europe trades have also been impacted by port access restrictions in the Gulf. Insurers have significantly increased war-risk premiums on all vessels calling Gulf ports, adding to operating costs across the carrier fleet.

U.S. Economic Pulse

The U.S. economy is showing resilience despite significant policy uncertainty. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April 2026, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The May employment report is scheduled for release on June 5, 2026; ADP's May private-sector payroll estimate came in at +122,000—the strongest private reading since January 2025—suggesting continued labor market stability. On the manufacturing side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 registered 54.0%—the highest reading since May 2022 and the fifth consecutive month of expansion. New Orders (56.8%) surged further into expansion territory, a leading indicator of future production and freight demand. A PMI reading of 54.0% is historically consistent with approximately 2.2% annualized GDP growth.

U.S. Economic Dashboard — Latest Available Data

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

The current supply chain environment is defined by an unusual convergence of geopolitical disruption, early peak demand, and a domestic economy showing unexpected strength. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just an energy story—it is reshaping global logistics costs at every mode. Air freight rates are running 30%+ above pre-conflict baselines because ocean alternatives through the Persian Gulf have effectively disappeared. Ocean rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific lanes are rising as carriers strategically blank sailings ahead of peak season and importers pull forward cargo to avoid the July BAF adjustment. And trucking capacity in North America is tightening after a prolonged downcycle, meaning fewer pressure-release valves for domestic supply chain managers.

From a trade compliance perspective, the first half of 2026 has brought unprecedented tariff policy volatility: IEEPA duties struck down, Section 232 expanded, Section 122 imposed and then invalidated—all within roughly 75 days. Companies with significant import exposure face real near-term financial implications from IEEPA refund windows and the new Section 232 framework, while the longer-term trajectory of U.S. tariff authority remains legally contested. Shippers with metal-intensive supply chains should prioritize classification reviews immediately.

On the positive side, the macro environment provides some structural support for freight demand. An ISM PMI at 54.0%—the highest in four years—signals that manufacturing activity is expanding robustly, which historically correlates with stronger freight volumes in the quarters ahead. A stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment sustains consumer demand and retail restocking cycles. These fundamentals suggest that while current cost pressures are real, they are occurring against a backdrop of genuine economic activity rather than speculative movement.

Supply chain managers should be aware that the window between now and late summer is likely to remain cost-elevated across most modes, with particular pressure on transoceanic air and ocean lanes. Diversification of routing options, close monitoring of Hormuz developments, and proactive capacity confirmation for Q3 will be critical for shippers with time-sensitive or high-value commodities.


The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.