BTX MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT - June 30

SUMMARY

Air Freight: Global air cargo spot rates rose 41% year-over-year in May 2026, reaching $3.40/kg, driven by strong North American and Asia-Pacific demand. Dynamic load factors on Asia–North America lanes reached 90%, signaling tight belly capacity.

Ocean Freight: The Drewry World Container Index surged 5% to $4,166/40ft on June 25 — its highest level since September 2024 — as transpacific frontloading intensifies ahead of anticipated July GRI increases to $7,000–$8,000+.

Trucking: Spot rates hit an all-time recorded high of $3.83/mile in early June driven by seasonal produce and beverage demand, with van load-to-truck ratios up 92% year-over-year. Flatbed remains the tightest segment at $3.60/mile.

Trade Compliance: Section 232 refinements took effect June 8; DOJ continues to appeal a court mandate requiring universal IEEPA tariff refunds; CBP proposed new rules June 23 to indefinitely suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value imports.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude fell to ~$73/barrel on June 30, down sharply from a wartime high near $95 in early June, as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz. ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.0% in May — its fifth consecutive month of expansion.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) edged down 0.9% week-over-week in the week of June 12 and stands 47.9% below year-ago levels — a comparison distorted by the brief post-Iran-war rate spike of early 2025. A more current lens from Xeneta shows global air cargo spot rates rising 41% year-over-year in May 2026 to $3.40/kg, reflecting the sustained surge in demand that has characterized 2026. The February outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict and subsequent Strait of Hormuz closure forced significant cargo rerouting away from Middle Eastern belly networks, concentrating volumes on European and transpacific lanes.

Corridor-level data through the week of June 1 shows a bifurcated picture. London Heathrow outbound (BAI40) is the standout performer, up 4.1% month-over-month and a remarkable 71.2% year-over-year — the steepest gain among all major corridors — as European carriers capture rerouted Middle East freight and e-commerce flows from Asia pivot to European gateways. Hong Kong outbound (BAI30) added 2.2% month-over-month and stands 39.0% above year-ago levels. Shanghai outbound (BAI80) eased a modest 2.3% month-over-month but remains 29.9% higher year-over-year. Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) pulled back 4.9% month-over-month, though it retains a 14.8% year-over-year premium.

IATA's May 2026 data confirms broad-based demand strength: total air cargo volumes rose 6.0% year-over-year (6.5% for international operations), while capacity grew only 1.9%. North American carriers led with a 10.5% volume increase, followed by Asia-Pacific at 8.0% and European at 6.7%. Middle Eastern carriers declined 8.9% year-over-year — a direct consequence of Hormuz-related disruptions. Dynamic load factors on Asia–North America lanes reached 90%, and Asia–Europe held at 87%, underscoring how fully subscribed the two most critical cargo corridors remain. Demand headwinds from the collapse of U.S.-bound Chinese B2C e-commerce (down 33% YoY in April) are being more than offset by semiconductor and hyperscaler infrastructure freight.

Market uncertainty is being priced into contract behavior: 22% of new forwarder-airline contracts signed in Q2 2026 are valid for one month only — more than double the 9% share in Q2 2025 — and 51% of all air freight contracts between forwarders and airlines run under 30 days, a share last seen during the COVID pandemic peak.
 

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) jumped 5% to $4,166 per 40-foot container for the week of June 25 — its highest reading since September 2024. The composite index is being carried by a surging transpacific leg: Shanghai–New York rates climbed 6% week-over-week to $7,149/40ft, and Shanghai–Los Angeles advanced an even steeper 12% to $5,750/40ft. Asia–Europe lanes held relatively firm with Shanghai–Rotterdam edging up 1% to $4,392/40ft and Shanghai–Genoa unchanged at $5,759/40ft. The National Retail Federation's latest import data confirms this year's peak season has pulled forward to June — volumes are projected 5% above May — adding further pressure to available space on major corridors.

Fleet capacity is increasingly constrained. Only four blank sailings have been announced on transpacific trades for the coming week, indicating carriers are deploying aggressively rather than managing capacity through voids. Across all East–West trades, 31 blank sailings are spread over the five weeks from Week 26 through Week 30, a 4% cancellation rate that reflects selective rather than defensive capacity management. Port congestion at Chinese gateway hubs including Nansha, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shekou — operating with high yard occupancy and multi-day vessel delays — is reducing effective vessel availability and tightening cut-off windows. The Panama Canal has imposed a 15.9-meter draft restriction, and carriers have reintroduced cargo weight restrictions for East Coast and Gulf routings through the Canal.

On the commercial front, CMA CGM has announced July 1 FAK rates of $6,300/40ft for Asia–Europe with peak season surcharges of $1,000/20ft on Asia–Europe and $1,400/20ft on Asia–Mediterranean. The broader market is pricing July transpacific rates in the $7,000–$8,000+ range, representing a potential $2,000–$3,000 premium above current June levels. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has reduced near-term Strait of Hormuz risk premiums, but the Red Sea remains restricted following the Houthi announcement on June 8 of a complete ban on Israeli shipping — keeping Suez Canal transit utilization below normal.

Carrier discipline on capacity deployment remains firm. With demand robust, blank sailings minimal on the transpacific, and GRIs timed for July 1, conditions favor continued upward rate pressure through the early weeks of Q3.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

U.S. truckload spot markets tightened sharply through June, with the national van spot rate hitting an all-time recorded high of $3.83 per mile in early June — the highest level ever tracked by DAT Freight & Analytics. The catalyst was a convergence of seasonally elevated demand (summer produce, beverages, and pre-holiday inventory buildout ahead of July 4), tighter carrier capacity from regulatory enforcement actions, and a van load-to-truck ratio that has surged 92% year-over-year. The dry van market had been in a multi-year softening cycle entering 2026; that dynamic has reversed sharply in 2026.

Flatbed remains the tightest truckload segment. The national flatbed rate reached $3.60 per mile as of May 19 — $0.16 above the April average — and the flatbed load-to-truck ratio climbed to 20.39, up from 13.47 in April and 189% above year-ago levels. Construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing-linked freight is driving flatbed demand, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.0% in May confirming that goods production remains in expansionary territory. Reefer rates have softened week-over-week alongside dry van as peak produce volumes level off; specific late-June per-mile figures were not available at time of publishing.

Diesel prices remain a cost driver embedded in fuel surcharges across all modes. The recent decline in crude oil prices — WTI fell from ~$90+ during the wartime spike to approximately $70/barrel by June 30 — may provide some near-term relief to carrier fuel costs, though surcharge recalculation lags typically run 2–4 weeks. The capacity trajectory into Q3 will be shaped by whether the load-to-truck ratio sustains at current levels or moderates as seasonal demand peaks.

Spot Rate Snapshot — Week Ending June 26, 2026

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

Several significant developments are shaping U.S. trade compliance this week. Presidential Proclamation 11032, signed June 1, 2026, refines the Section 232 tariff framework for steel, aluminum, and copper. The changes expand reduced-duty eligibility and adjust treatment for certain downstream products, particularly machinery and equipment. The additional refinements took effect June 8, 2026, with key provisions remaining in place through December 31, 2027.

On the IEEPA tariff refund front, the Department of Justice formally appealed the U.S. Court of International Trade's June 2 mandate requiring CBP to issue universal IEEPA tariff refunds — including to importers whose entries were liquidated beyond the 90-day window. CBP will continue processing refunds for unliquidated or nonfinal entries and those covered by importer-specific court orders, but the DOJ is contesting any blanket mandate covering finally liquidated entries. Importers with liquidated entries subject to IEEPA duties should consult trade counsel regarding the evolving litigation.

The USTR has proposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries found to have insufficient prohibitions on forced labor in their supply chains. Proposed duty rates range from 10% to 12.5% on imports from affected nations. This is a rulemaking proposal at this stage; a public comment period is expected before any finalization. Separately, on June 23, 2026, CBP published two proposed rules to indefinitely suspend the de minimis duty exemption for low-value imports — a significant development for B2C e-commerce importers. Shippers and importers managing high-volume, low-value inbound flows should monitor this rulemaking closely.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Crude oil prices declined sharply through June as diplomatic progress on the Strait of Hormuz crisis reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude settled near $73–74 per barrel on June 30, down from a wartime high of approximately $95 per barrel reached in early June, while WTI fell to approximately $70 per barrel. Brent is on track to post a decline of nearly 20% for the month of June alone — its steepest monthly drop in years. The catalyst is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework finalized in mid-June, which includes a 60-day truce and provisions for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Fragility persists: tit-for-tat exchanges between Washington and Tehran after the ceasefire signing have slowed the pace of the strait's reopening, and energy shipping through the waterway remains below pre-crisis levels.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis, which began February 28, 2026, when Iran closed the waterway following the onset of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, has had a profound impact on global energy logistics. At its peak, roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of LNG passed through the strait daily. Up to 20,000 seafarers aboard approximately 2,000 vessels were stranded in the Persian Gulf at the height of the disruption. Insurance premiums and bunker fuel costs spiked sharply; those elevated costs are now unwinding but with lag effects through fuel surcharge recalculation. The Red Sea adds a separate layer of complexity: Houthi rebels announced on June 8 a complete ban on Israeli-linked vessels transiting the waterway, maintaining restrictions that continue to divert cargo onto longer Cape of Good Hope routings.

The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs in May 2026 — well above the consensus forecast of 85,000 — following an upwardly revised 179,000 gain in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.0% in May 2026, the highest reading since May 2022 and the fifth consecutive month of expansion above the 50.0% threshold. Both the June employment situation and June ISM Manufacturing PMI are scheduled for release in early July and will provide an important read on whether economic momentum has been sustained through the geopolitical turbulence.

U.S. Economic Dashboard — Latest Available Data

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

The convergence of tightening conditions across all major freight modes creates an environment of elevated cost and schedule uncertainty for global shippers entering Q3 2026. Air cargo load factors are at 90% on the busiest transpacific lanes, ocean spot rates are at multi-year highs heading into July GRI cycles, and truckload spot markets have hit all-time recorded highs in the U.S. Shippers with time-sensitive or high-value cargo moving across any of these modes should be aware that booking lead times, cut-off discipline, and equipment availability are all under pressure simultaneously.

Geopolitical disruptions are compounding commercial tightness. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has effectively removed the Persian Gulf from the standard routing map for cargo, energy, and LNG — a disruption that ripples into carrier fuel economics, alternative routing costs, and insurance premiums globally. While the ceasefire framework offers the prospect of gradual normalization, the pace of Hormuz reopening remains uncertain, and the Red Sea Houthi situation has not been resolved. Shippers relying on Middle East transit corridors or managing origin sourcing near the Gulf should anticipate continued variability through at least Q3.

The trade compliance landscape is adding supply chain complexity on the regulatory front. The proposed Section 301 expansion to 60 nations, the de minimis suspension rulemaking, and ongoing IEEPA refund litigation each carry implications for landed-cost planning and customs clearance processes. Shippers importing from countries potentially covered by proposed forced-labor Section 301 actions, or those relying on de minimis exemptions for B2C flows, should engage trade counsel now to assess exposure while the rulemakings are still in comment-period stages.

On the positive side, the decline in oil prices toward $70–74/barrel — if sustained — should begin to moderate fuel surcharges across trucking, air, and ocean modes over coming weeks as recalculation windows reset. The strength of U.S. manufacturing (ISM at 54.0%) and employment (+172K jobs in May) supports continued goods demand, though it also underpins the freight volume that is keeping all modes tight. The BTX team monitors these markets daily. If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.