BTX MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT - July 14

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell 2.7% week-on-week to 2,551.00 on July 6, though it remains up 27.7% year-on-year. Corridor indices out of Frankfurt, Hong Kong, London Heathrow, and Shanghai all eased on the week while staying well above year-ago levels.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% to $4,639 per 40ft container on July 9, its highest level since September 2024. Transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes both climbed further amid blank sailings, tight equipment availability, and pre-tariff-deadline frontloading.

Trucking: DAT's June spot dry van rate reached $3.00 per mile, and spot rates topped contract rates for the first time since February 2022. Flatbed spot rates hit an all-time high of $3.69 per mile as carrier capacity continues to tighten.

Trade Compliance: The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff and simplified postal treatment for low-value parcels are both set to expire July 24, 2026. Section 232 tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals take effect July 31 for major manufacturers, with smaller companies following September 29.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude climbed to roughly $76 per barrel amid renewed US-Iran tensions and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000, well below expectations, while ISM Manufacturing PMI held in expansion territory at 53.3%.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), a weighted average of 17 destination-basket routes and six outbound indices, closed at 2,551.00 for the week ending July 6, 2026, down 72.00 points or 2.7% from the prior week. Despite the weekly pullback, the index remains 27.7% higher than the same week last year, reflecting a market that has been elevated for much of 2026 amid recurring geopolitical stress and tariff-driven demand shifts.

Corridor performance was mixed but directionally consistent. Outbound Frankfurt (BAI20) eased 2.9% week-on-week and is still up 25.1% year-on-year. Outbound Hong Kong (BAI30) slipped a modest 0.7% and remains 30.0% higher year-on-year. Outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) posted the steepest weekly decline at 11.5%, though it is up only 1.8% year-on-year, the smallest year-on-year gain among the major corridors. Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) fell 6.0% week-on-week and remains 27.7% higher year-on-year.

IATA's most recent full data set (May 2026) showed global air cargo demand up 6.0% year-on-year (6.5% for international operations), while capacity grew only 1.9% (2.8% international) over the same period — demand growth continuing to outpace capacity growth. A precise June load factor figure was not available at time of publishing; Lufthansa Cargo has separately flagged longer-than-normal handling times at Frankfurt and Munich, and dedicated freighter capacity on transpacific lanes remains heavily booked, with load factors reported consistently above 90%.

Looking ahead, capacity conditions are improving more visibly on intra-Asia and Asia-to-Europe routes than on Asia-to-U.S. lanes, where tariff-sensitive and high-tech cargo continue to keep freighter space tight. Regional network expansion continues alongside this tightness, including new ProCharter corridors out of Nairobi and an expanded MASkargo/Qatar Airways Cargo freighter partnership linking Kuala Lumpur, Bengaluru, and Doha.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) rose 2% to $4,639 per 40ft container for the week of July 9, 2026 — its highest level since September 2024. The increase was led by the Asia-Europe trade, with rates from Shanghai to Genoa up 2% to $6,463 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Rotterdam up 5% to $4,933. On the transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to $6,482 per 40ft container, while Shanghai to New York held roughly steady at $7,904.

Capacity remains tight across most major lanes. Carriers have blanked roughly six to eight transpacific sailings and four Asia-Europe sailings in the coming week alone, part of an estimated 30 blanked sailings over a five-week span. Equipment shortages, especially for 40-foot containers out of China and Southeast Asia, are compounding the effect of these capacity reductions, while space conditions are beginning to ease on some U.S. West Coast services even as East Coast, Gulf, and Pacific Northwest capacity stays tight.

A significant driver behind current volumes is frontloading ahead of the July 24 expiration of Section 122 tariffs and anticipated Section 301 action, which appears to be contributing to an estimated 15% month-over-month increase in inbound U.S. volumes. Heightened tension around the Strait of Hormuz has added a further layer of uncertainty to East-West trade, keeping the market volatile.

Carriers continue to support rate levels through General Rate Increases, Peak Season Surcharges, and revised FAK levels — CMA CGM, for example, has announced FAK rates of $7,000 per 40ft container on Asia-Europe and $7,900–$8,500 on Asia-Med effective July 15. Drewry expects rates to stay elevated through the summer as strong export demand continues to outpace available capacity.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

DAT's June 2026 data shows dry van spot rates at $3.00 per mile (up 11 cents from May), reefer spot rates at $3.39 per mile (up 4 cents), and flatbed spot rates at $3.69 per mile (up 4 cents to a new all-time high). Notably, the national average van spot rate exceeded the contract rate in June for the first time since February 2022 — a signal that capacity conditions are tightening across the market.

The van load-to-truck ratio stood at 10.87 for the week beginning July 4, down from 12.88 the prior week, though DAT attributes this dip to the holiday week rather than any underlying loosening — load posts remain roughly 35% above year-ago levels. Tender rejection rates have also climbed to their highest levels since 2022, another sign that available capacity is thinning relative to freight volume.

Diesel is providing some offsetting relief: the national average fell to $4.57 per gallon as of July 6, down 9 cents week-on-week and the tenth consecutive weekly decline after peaking near $5.64 in May. Even so, diesel remains 84 cents above year-ago levels, and the recent relief has not reversed the broader tightening in linehaul capacity. The near-term outlook points to a market that is tightening, but unevenly across regions and equipment types.

Spot Rate Snapshot 

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

Several tariff and customs changes are converging around the same window this month. The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff is scheduled to expire July 24, 2026 under its own statutory terms; the administration has indicated it intends to pursue new Section 301 action around the same time. Also expiring July 24 is simplified postal treatment for low-value parcels — from that date, packages entering the U.S. through the postal network move to full standard customs duties and entry (the same treatment already required for commercial couriers), with duty assessed as a percentage of declared value and a complete 10-digit HTS classification required for every parcel.

Separately, the Committee for the Statistical Annotation of Tariff Schedules finalized a set of revisions to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule effective July 1, 2026, adding, removing, or revising various 10-digit statistical reporting numbers. Section 232 tariffs of 100% on patented pharmaceutical products and associated ingredients take effect July 31, 2026 for large, named companies, with smaller companies following September 29, 2026.

On the refund side, following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling that IEEPA does not authorize the tariffs the administration had imposed under that authority, CBP's CAPE refund processing system is progressing toward Phase 3 (covering finally liquidated entries for importers who filed at the Court of International Trade), which remains on track for late July 2026. Separately, the USMCA partners held their scheduled review this month, and the administration has indicated it will not extend the agreement in its current form.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Brent crude closed near $76 per barrel on July 12, a weekly gain of roughly 5%, before easing slightly to around $74 on July 13. WTI opened at $71.77 per barrel on July 10. The primary driver has been renewed US-Iran tension and disruption concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly 20% of global oil and gas trade — the resulting risk premium has been the dominant force in the market over the past week. EIA's forecast has Brent averaging $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, with prices expected to soften toward $65 in 2027 as inventories build.

On the U.S. economic front, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, well below the roughly 115,000 consensus estimate and a sharp slowdown from May's downwardly revised 129,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, though largely because labor force participation fell to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. Health care and social assistance led job gains, while leisure and hospitality posted the largest decline.

ISM's Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3% in June, down 0.7 point from May but still marking a sixth consecutive month of expansion and a twentieth straight month of overall economic expansion. Raw materials prices increased for a twenty-first consecutive month, while new orders and production growth both slowed from the prior month.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Conditions are tightening across most modes at the same time, though not uniformly. Air and ocean capacity are both being squeezed by a mix of geopolitical risk, blank sailings, and tariff-driven frontloading, while trucking capacity is thinning in response to strengthening demand rather than any single disruption. Shippers should be aware that transit reliability, not just cost, may be affected as carriers manage constrained space across transpacific air and ocean lanes.

The tariff landscape remains in motion, with the Section 122 global tariff and simplified postal entry both expiring July 24, new Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs beginning July 31, and Section 301 action anticipated around the same window. Shippers with pending IEEPA-related duty exposure should track CBP's CAPE refund rollout, as Phase 3 processing is expected to advance later this month.

Energy markets remain sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which touch both bunker and jet fuel costs and, in turn, air and ocean surcharges. Meanwhile, a cooling labor market and manufacturing sector still in expansion point to an economy that is decelerating but not contracting, a backdrop worth watching for its effect on freight demand into the back half of the year.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.