BTX Market Intelligence Report - August 25

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) eased 0.2% week-over-week but remains up 16.9% year-over-year, with corridor performance diverging sharply as London Heathrow outbound (BAI40) jumped 31.6% while Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) fell 10.5%. Global tonnage growth has softened into the seasonal late-summer lull even as capacity discipline keeps per-kilogram pricing roughly flat.

Ocean Freight: The Drewry World Container Index climbed 4% week-over-week to $4,526 per 40ft container, led by 9% gains on both the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York lanes. Asia-Europe rates moved lower amid Chinese port congestion and labor disruptions at German ports, widening the gap between transpacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes.

Trucking: Truckload spot rates cooled in mid-August, with dry van down 2.6% week-over-week to $2.62/mile and flatbed down 2.3% to $3.34/mile, even as all three equipment types remain 34-38% above year-ago levels. The Truckstop Market Demand Index eased to 127.9 but is still up 56.7% year-over-year, signaling capacity remains historically tight despite the recent rate cooling.

Trade Compliance: CBP has accepted roughly $128.68 billion in potential and certified IEEPA tariff refunds for processing following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling, with more than 17.69 million entries in the pipeline. Separately, a new Section 232 action imposes a 15% tariff plus minimum import price floors on polysilicon and solar-supply-chain products, effective December 4, 2026.

Commodities & Economy: Brent crude traded near $93/barrel and WTI near $85/barrel, both up sharply from a year ago amid Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related tensions. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 (unemployment 4.1%) even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI held in expansion at 55.6%, its highest reading since May 2022.

AIR FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) registered a 0.2% week-over-week decline for the week ending August 10, though the index remains 16.9% higher than the same period last year. The pullback reflects a broader seasonal transition as the market moves past summer peak demand, following a sharper -8.62% month-over-month reset recorded in early July after an unusually high pricing base earlier in the year.

Corridor performance was uneven. Hong Kong outbound volumes (BAI30) softened 3% week-over-week (still up 15.9% year-over-year), while Shanghai outbound (BAI80) gained 1.6% week-over-week and remains up 21.4% year-over-year on continued intra-Asia and US-bound strength. European corridors showed the widest swings: Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) fell 10.5% week-over-week, while London Heathrow outbound (BAI40) jumped 31.6% - a divergence tied to capacity reallocation and lane-specific demand shifts rather than a uniform regional trend.

IATA's most recently published industry-wide data (June 2026) showed global air cargo demand up 8.5% year-on-year, with the cargo load factor reaching 46.9% - a 1.7 percentage point improvement from a year earlier. That load factor signals capacity growth (+4.4% year-on-year) is still running behind demand growth industry-wide, a dynamic that has kept belly and freighter space comparatively tight even as week-to-week tonnage figures soften.

Weekly tonnage data for the first half of August points to a market entering its traditional end-of-summer lull, with global chargeable weight down roughly 4-5% week-over-week - driven partly by Typhoon Dolphin disruptions in Shanghai and the continued falloff in EU-bound e-commerce volume following the end of the de minimis exemption. Despite softer volumes, per-kilogram pricing has held close to flat (around $2.95-$2.97/kg), as carriers have also trimmed capacity in step with demand. Industry forecasters expect a more pronounced seasonal easing into fall and winter as tariff-related freight-forwarding acceleration fades.

OCEAN FREIGHT INSIGHTS

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) rose 4% week-over-week to $4,526 per 40-foot container for the week of August 20, rebounding after a stretch of more mixed weekly movement. The increase was driven primarily by strength on the transpacific trade, while Asia-Europe lanes moved in the opposite direction.

Carriers have continued to manage available capacity through blank sailings, with roughly eight transpacific sailings blanked in a recent week - a level carriers described as stable rather than escalating - alongside a smaller number of blanked Asia-Europe sailings. Port congestion across central and southern China has also constrained available capacity, a factor that has supported firmer transpacific pricing even as overall demand growth moderates.

Lane-level detail underscores the transpacific-versus-Asia-Europe split: Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York rates both climbed 9% week-over-week, while Shanghai-Rotterdam eased 1% and Shanghai-Genoa fell 2%. Asia-Europe softness has coincided with port congestion and labor disruptions reported at German ports, adding friction to an already inconsistent lane.

Carriers have signaled they expect transpacific rate volatility to moderate in the coming weeks, while Asia-Europe pricing is expected to stay comparatively stable as capacity management strategies continue. No major new peak-season surcharge announcements were identified this week beyond the routine weekly rate adjustments reflected in the WCI.

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCKING

Truckload spot rates cooled in mid-August after a historic multi-month run-up. Dry van spot rates averaged $2.62/mile, down 2.6% week-over-week; flatbed averaged $3.34/mile, down 2.3%; and reefer held roughly flat at $3.38/mile, per market data for the week of August 17-23. Despite the pullback, all three equipment types remain 34-38% above year-ago levels.

Load-to-truck dynamics still point to a historically tight market: load postings were running about 26% above year-ago levels while available truck postings were down roughly 28% year-over-year. The Truckstop Market Demand Index eased seven points week-over-week to 127.9 but remains up 56.7% year-over-year, indicating capacity conditions are still considerably tighter than a year ago even as the pace of rate gains slows.

Diesel costs remain a contributing factor to all-in linehaul-plus-surcharge pricing; the national average on-highway diesel price rose to $5.313/gallon in late July, up 3.5% week-over-week. Industry analysts expect spot rates to stabilize in the weeks ahead, though near-term direction may continue to vary by equipment type and lane as the market works through its post-peak adjustment.

DAT Spot Rate Summary 

TRADE COMPLIANCE / US CUSTOMS UPDATES

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. United States that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) - including the "fentanyl" tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada and the broader "reciprocal" tariffs - were unlawfully imposed, and the administration subsequently revoked the related executive orders. As of July 31, 2026, CBP reported approximately $128.68 billion in potential and certified refunds accepted for processing through its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system, with more than 17.69 million entries in the refund pipeline. Only the original importer of record or its customs broker may file a CAPE claim, and importers pursuing judicial refunds through the Court of International Trade face filing deadlines of February 4, 2027 (fentanyl-tariff entries) and April 5, 2027 (reciprocal-tariff entries).

Separately, on August 6, 2026, the administration announced a new Section 232 action on polysilicon and its downstream derivatives, imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on ingots, wafers, solar cells, and modules, effective December 4, 2026, alongside minimum import price floors (for example, $21/kilogram for polysilicon and $0.22/watt for solar cells) that trigger an additional specific tariff if transaction prices fall below the threshold. Importers of affected solar and polysilicon products should confirm classification and country-of-origin documentation well ahead of the effective date, given the added price-floor compliance requirement layered on top of the ad valorem rate.

WORLD NEWS & COMMODITIES

Brent crude traded near $93/barrel and WTI near $85/barrel as of August 24, 2026, both down slightly on the day but up sharply - roughly 30-39% - from year-ago levels. Continued attention on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related developments remains a key swing factor for near-term price direction, alongside ordinary supply-and-demand dynamics.

Beyond oil markets, active disruption points for global shippers include port congestion across central and southern China, labor disruptions at German ports affecting Asia-Europe ocean flows, and continued regional conflict in the Middle East that has disrupted Gulf-linked air cargo corridors and kept a risk premium in crude prices.

On the economic front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July 2026 (released August 7), with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. In contrast, the ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6% in July - its seventh consecutive month of expansion and its highest reading since May 2022 - with new orders (56.7%) and production (58.5%) subindexes both showing strong growth and employment returning to expansion territory for the first time in 33 months.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Taken together, this week's data point to a market in transition across modes. Air and ocean freight are both showing signs of capacity discipline - blank sailings in ocean, capacity trims in air - that are keeping pricing comparatively firm even as underlying demand growth softens into the seasonal late-summer period. Shippers should be aware that this dynamic can produce less predictable transit reliability even where headline rates appear stable.

In trucking, the historic run-up in spot rates has begun to cool, but load-to-truck ratios and capacity indices confirm the market remains meaningfully tighter than a year ago. Shippers relying on spot capacity should be aware that near-term rate direction may continue to diverge by equipment type and lane, and that diesel cost movements remain a meaningful input to all-in linehaul-plus-surcharge pricing.

On the compliance side, the scale of the IEEPA refund process - now over $128 billion in accepted claims - is a reminder that trade policy remains an active and evolving variable for cross-border shippers, distinct from the newer Section 232 tariff action on polysilicon and solar products taking effect in December. Shippers moving affected commodities should confirm their compliance teams are tracking both the refund deadlines and the new tariff's minimum import price mechanism.

Broader economic signals are mixed: a soft July jobs report alongside a seventh straight month of manufacturing expansion suggests underlying demand for goods movement remains resilient even as headline employment data cools. Elevated oil prices, driven in part by ongoing Middle East tensions, remain a factor shippers should continue to monitor as a potential input to broader transportation cost structures.

The BTX team monitors these markets daily.

If any of the trends in this report affect your specific lanes or commodities, reach out to your account manager or click here to learn more.